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Model 1.2

Home › Football › 3. Division - Girone 5 › Finnsnes v Harstad

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Finnsnes v Harstad

Finnsnes
2–3Full time
Harstad

3. Division - Girone 5 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33
Finnsnes 2–3 Harstad HARSTAD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Harstad win49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.405

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Harstad win at 49%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Harstad 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 32–20–48
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Finnsnes v Harstad
  4. 20′Finnsnes find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 54–22–24
  5. 20′We said Harstad at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 54–22–24
  6. 20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Finnsnes 1–0 Harstad
  7. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Harstad win: 49% at kick-off, 24% now
  8. 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Finnsnes win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Harstad win 46%)
  9. 25′A goal for Harstad on 25′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–25–45
  10. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Finnsnes 1–1 Harstad
  11. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Harstad win: 49% at kick-off, 45% now
  12. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Harstad win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Finnsnes win 55%)
  13. 39′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–1 · 29–29–42
  14. 43′Harstad score on 42′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 10–19–71
  15. 43′We said Harstad at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–2 · 10–19–71
  16. 43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Finnsnes 1–2 Harstad
  17. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Harstad win: 49% at kick-off, 71% now
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Finnsnes 1–2 Harstad
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Finnsnes 1–2 Harstad
  20. 47′41′: L. Sorensen on the scoresheet for Harstad, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 9–19–72
  21. 59′We said Harstad at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–19–75
  22. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Harstad win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
  23. 71′We said Harstad at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  24. 72′Harstad find the net on 72′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
  25. 72′We said Harstad at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 1–3 · 0–3–97
  26. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Finnsnes 1–3 Harstad
  27. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Harstad win: 49% at kick-off, 97% now
  28. 73′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–3–97
  29. 75′A goal for Finnsnes on 75′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 2–15–82
  30. 75′5 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 2–15–82
  31. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Finnsnes 2–3 Harstad
  32. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Harstad win: 49% at kick-off, 82% now
  33. 76′M. Bendiksen scores for Finnsnes on 74′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 2–15–83
  34. 78′We said Harstad at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–3 · 2–14–85
  35. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Harstad win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
  36. 83′We said Harstad at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–3 · 1–10–90
  37. FTFULL TIME Finnsnes 2–3 Harstad
  38. FTFinnsnes 2–3 Harstad · Harstad win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Harstad are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Finnsnes 32%, draw 19%, Harstad 49%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Finnsnes v HarstadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Finnsnes win32%
Draw19%
Harstad win49%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Finnsnes

Harstad

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Harstad24+4146
5Finnsnes24+740

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · harstad winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off
49% The market–
Us49%

We make Harstad a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.1, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Finnsnes v Harstad1.65 – 2.09
Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 12 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 40 v 465 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 13:35
Our probability · Harstad win

Published at 51%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Finnsnes win32%––
Draw19%––
Harstad win49%––
Over 2.5 goals71%––
Both teams to score69%––
Over 1.5 goals87%––
Over 3.5 goals51%––
Finnsnes or draw51%––
Finnsnes clean sheet13%––
Harstad clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.2%
0123450 2.0 5.8 5.2 3.6 1 4.7 7.5 8.2 5.7 3.0 2 3.4 6.6 6.6 4.6 2.4 3 3.7 3.7 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Finnsnes down, Harstad across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022
Goals a meeting6.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsHAR 5–1 FIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 12 Sept

FINNSNES

LLWDDW1–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1

HARSTAD

WWLDWW6–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 6–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Skedsmo24+2453
2Fløya24+3248
3Harstad24+4146
4Alta24+2145
5Finnsnes24+740
6Kongsvinger II24−1335
7Skjetten24+333
8Lillestrøm II24+1831
9Fauske Sprint24−1931
10Strømsgodset II24−130
11Tromsø II24+127
12Skjervøy24−2327
13Bossekop24−4319
14Ulfstind24−4815

The competition's standings before kick-off.