Home › Football › 3. Division - Girone 5 › Fauske Sprint v Harstad

Fauske Sprint v Harstad

Fauske Sprint

2–4Full time

Harstad

3. Division - Girone 5 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Fauske Sprint 2–4 Harstad HARSTAD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Harstad win~~59%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.264

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.220

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Harstad win at 59%.
2′Much as we predicted: Harstad was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 26–16–59
4′Much as we predicted: Harstad was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 26–16–58
23′Harstad ahead on 8′ through S. Aronsen. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–14–74
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Harstad win: 59% at kick-off, 74% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Harstad win: 59% at kick-off, 58% now
25′Harstad ahead on 8′ through S. Aronsen. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–14–74
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Harstad win: 59% at kick-off, 74% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Harstad win: 59% at kick-off, 58% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Fauske Sprint 1–1 Harstad
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Fauske Sprint 2–1 Harstad
41′33′ and it is 2–1: A. Gleinsvag on the scoresheet for Fauske Sprint. 2–1 · 49–22–29
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Harstad win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Fauske Sprint win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Harstad win 29%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Harstad win: 59% at kick-off, 74% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Harstad win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Fauske Sprint win 13%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Harstad win: 59% at kick-off, 74% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Harstad win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Fauske Sprint win 13%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Harstad win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Fauske Sprint win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Harstad win 29%)
43′33′ and it is 2–1: A. Gleinsvag on the scoresheet for Fauske Sprint. 2–1 · 50–23–28
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Harstad win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Fauske Sprint win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Harstad win 29%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Harstad win: 59% at kick-off, 74% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Harstad win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Fauske Sprint win 13%)
45′HALF-TIME Fauske Sprint 2–1 Harstad
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Harstad win: 59% at kick-off, 28% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Fauske Sprint win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Harstad win 28%)
46′SECOND HALF Fauske Sprint 2–1 Harstad
53′⚽ GOAL · 8' Fauske Sprint 2–1 Harstad · S. Aronsen
53′⚽ GOAL · 28' Fauske Sprint 2–1 Harstad · H. Reigstad
53′⚽ GOAL · 33' Fauske Sprint 2–1 Harstad · A. Gleinsvag
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Fauske Sprint 2–2 Harstad
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Fauske Sprint 2–3 Harstad
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Fauske Sprint 2–4 Harstad
FTFULL TIME Fauske Sprint 2–4 Harstad
FTFauske Sprint 2–4 Harstad · Harstad win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Fauske Sprint win27%

Draw15%

Harstad win59%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Fauske Sprint

Harstad

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Harstad	22	+34	40
7	Fauske Sprint	22	−13	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · harstad winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

59% The market62%

Us59%

~~Market~~62%

We make Harstad a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–3.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · harstad win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fauske Sprint win	27%	19%	+8
Draw	15%	19%	−4
Harstad win	59%	62%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	92%	79%	+14
Both teams to score	86%	73%	+13
Over 1.5 goals	97%	91%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	82%	62%	+20
Fauske Sprint or draw	41%	38%	+3
Fauske Sprint clean sheet	4%	–	–
Harstad clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–3 at 5.3%

0123450 2.1 1 2.5 4.3 4.7 3.9 2.72 3.0 4.9 5.3 4.5 3.13 2.4 3.8 4.2 3.5 2.44 2.3 2.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fauske Sprint down, Harstad across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 976 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.8% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 11.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fauske Sprint at home: 2.33 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Harstad away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.37 goals for Fauske Sprint, 3.43 for Harstad. Most likely score 2–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~11.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HAR 10–1 FAU

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5

FAUSKE SPRINT

LWWWLL1–5 · 6–1 · 5–3 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 0–3

HARSTAD

WWWWLD3–2 · 1–0 · 6–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	23	+23	50
2	Fløya	23	+31	48
3	Alta	23	+26	45
4	Harstad	22	+34	40
5	Finnsnes	23	+5	37
6	Skjetten	22	+9	33
7	Fauske Sprint	22	−13	31
8	Kongsvinger II	22	−19	29
9	Lillestrøm II	22	+15	28
10	Skjervøy	23	−21	27
11	Strømsgodset II	22	−7	24
12	Tromsø II	22	0	21
13	Bossekop	22	−40	19
14	Ulfstind	23	−43	15