Bossekop v Skedsmo prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Bossekop 2–3 Skedsmo SKEDSMO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Skedsmo win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.190

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Skedsmo win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Skedsmo was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 20–16–64
1′KICK-OFF Bossekop v Skedsmo
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Skedsmo win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
45′We said Skedsmo at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 20–28–52
45′HALF-TIME Bossekop 0–0 Skedsmo
46′SECOND HALF Bossekop 0–0 Skedsmo
51′We said Skedsmo at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 20–31–49
55′We expected about 4.1 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 19–34–47
60′Skedsmo find the net on 59′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–15–82
60′We published Skedsmo at 64%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 4–15–82
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Bossekop 0–1 Skedsmo
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Skedsmo win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
69′A goal for Bossekop on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 16–47–37
69′We said Skedsmo at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 16–47–37
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Bossekop 1–1 Skedsmo
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Skedsmo win: 64% at kick-off, 37% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Skedsmo win 37%)
72′Skedsmo score on 71′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–13–85
72′We published Skedsmo at 64%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
72′Goals are coming at about the 4.1 we expected. 1–2 · 2–13–85
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Bossekop 1–2 Skedsmo
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Skedsmo win: 64% at kick-off, 85% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Skedsmo win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
80′Skedsmo find the net on 79′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
80′We published Skedsmo at 64%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Bossekop 1–3 Skedsmo
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Skedsmo win: 64% at kick-off, 99% now
83′We published Skedsmo at 64%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
84′A goal for Bossekop on 83′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–7–93
84′We published Skedsmo at 64%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–3 · 0–7–93
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Bossekop 2–3 Skedsmo
85′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.1 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–7–93
85′O. Olsen scores for Bossekop on 84′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–7–93
90′Bossekop are down to nine from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–3 · 0–4–96
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Bossekop
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Bossekop
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90+4' Bossekop
FTFULL TIME Bossekop 2–3 Skedsmo
FTBossekop 2–3 Skedsmo · Skedsmo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Skedsmo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bossekop 20%, draw 16%, Skedsmo 64%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Bossekop v SkedsmoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bossekop win20%

Draw16%

Skedsmo win64%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bossekop

Skedsmo

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · skedsmo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Skedsmo a 64% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–2.7, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bossekop v Skedsmo~~1.38 – 2.69

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 50~~13 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Skedsmo win

Published at 65%, 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bossekop win	20%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Skedsmo win	64%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Bossekop or draw	36%	–	–
Bossekop clean sheet	8%	–	–
Skedsmo clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.1%

0123450 5.3 6.2 5.4 3.7 2.11 3.1 6.0 8.1 7.0 4.7 2.72 4.5 5.6 4.8 3.2 3 2.2 2.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bossekop down, Skedsmo across0–5 goals a side shown (92.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 982 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.8% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bossekop at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Skedsmo away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Bossekop, 2.69 for Skedsmo. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SKE 3–0 BOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 6 Sept

BOSSEKOP

LDWLLL0–11 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 2–4

SKEDSMO

DWWWDL0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 7–0 · 2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	23	+23	50
2	Harstad	24	+41	46
3	Fløya	23	+29	45
4	Alta	24	+21	45
5	Finnsnes	23	+5	37
6	Kongsvinger II	24	−13	35
7	Skjetten	23	+5	33
8	Fauske Sprint	24	−19	31
9	Lillestrøm II	23	+13	28
10	Tromsø II	23	+4	27
11	Strømsgodset II	23	−3	27
12	Skjervøy	23	−21	27
13	Bossekop	23	−42	19
14	Ulfstind	23	−43	15