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Alta v Skjervøy

Alta

2–1Full time

Skjervøy

3. Division - Girone 5 · SAT 10 OCT · Finnmarkshallen

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Alta 2–1 Skjervøy ALTA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alta win~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.076

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alta win at 77%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Alta 77% before kick-off, 78% now. 0–0 · 78–13–10
2′KICK-OFF Alta v Skjervøy
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Alta 1–0 Skjervøy
23′16′ and it is 1–0: T. Norbye on the scoresheet for Alta. 1–0 · 89–8–3
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Alta win: 77% at kick-off, 89% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 16' Alta 1–0 Skjervøy · T. Norbye
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Alta 2–0 Skjervøy
44′Alta find the net on 42′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
44′Alta ahead on 42′ through A. Ettouati. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Alta win: 77% at kick-off, 97% now
45′We said Alta at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
45′HALF-TIME Alta 2–0 Skjervøy
47′SECOND HALF Alta 2–0 Skjervøy
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Alta 2–1 Skjervøy · O. I. Skalebo
FTFULL TIME Alta 2–1 Skjervøy
FTAlta 2–1 Skjervøy · Alta win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Alta win77%

Draw12%

Skjervøy win11%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Finnmarkshallen

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alta winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

77% The market–

Us77%

We make Alta a 77% chance to win. The model expects 3.2–1.1, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alta win	77%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Skjervøy win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	61%	–	–
Alta or draw	89%	–	–
Alta clean sheet	34%	–	–
Skjervøy clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.7%

0123450 2.1 1 5.1 4.6 2.7 2 7.0 7.5 4.1 3 7.2 7.7 4.2 4 5.7 6.1 3.3 5 3.7 3.9 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Alta down, Skjervøy across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 974 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.6% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alta at home: 3.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Skjervøy away: 1.00 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.19 goals for Alta, 1.10 for Skjervøy. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SKJ 4–2 ALT

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5

ALTA

WDWWWW5–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 8–3 · 2–0

SKJERVØY

WDLLLW3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–6 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	22	+25	50
2	Fløya	22	+29	45
3	Alta	22	+25	42
4	Harstad	22	+34	40
5	Finnsnes	23	+5	37
6	Skjetten	22	+9	33
7	Fauske Sprint	22	−13	31
8	Kongsvinger II	22	−19	29
9	Lillestrøm II	22	+15	28
10	Skjervøy	22	−20	27
11	Strømsgodset II	22	−7	24
12	Tromsø II	22	0	21
13	Bossekop	22	−40	19
14	Ulfstind	23	−43	15