Viking II v Flekkerøy prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Viking II 1–2 Flekkerøy VIKING II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Viking II win~~56%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.930

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.098

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Viking II win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Viking II 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–20–24
1′KICK-OFF Viking II v Flekkerøy
6′Viking II score on 5′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–14–11
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Viking II 1–0 Flekkerøy
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Viking II win: 56% at kick-off, 76% now
7′We said Viking II at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–14–10
8′6′: M. Johansen on the scoresheet for Viking II, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–14–10
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 1–0 · 76–15–9
45′HALF-TIME Viking II 1–0 Flekkerøy
46′SECOND HALF Viking II 1–0 Flekkerøy
63′We said Viking II at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
68′Flekkerøy find the net on 67′. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–48–19
68′We said Viking II at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–48–19
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Viking II 1–1 Flekkerøy
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Viking II win: 56% at kick-off, 33% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Viking II win 81%)
72′We said Viking II at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–17
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Viking II win: 56% at kick-off, 26% now
77′We said Viking II at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
81′We said Viking II at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–71–11
83′A goal for Flekkerøy on 83′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–14–85
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Viking II win: 56% at kick-off, 15% now
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Viking II 1–2 Flekkerøy
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Viking II win: 56% at kick-off, 1% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Flekkerøy win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 76%)
84′We said Viking II at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–12–87
FTFULL TIME Viking II 1–2 Flekkerøy
FTViking II 1–2 Flekkerøy · Viking II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Viking II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Viking II 56%, draw 20%, Flekkerøy 24%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Viking II v FlekkerøyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Viking II win56%

Draw20%

Flekkerøy win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueLyse Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Viking II

Flekkerøy

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Flekkerøy	24	+7	39
7	Viking II	24	+21	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · viking ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

56% The market62%

Us56%

~~Market~~62%

We make Viking II a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Viking II v Flekkerøy~~2.32 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 35 v 39~~7 v 4

~~The market · Viking II win~~62% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Viking II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Viking II win	56%	62%	−6
Draw	20%	20%	0
Flekkerøy win	24%	18%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Both teams to score	68%	70%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	89%	89%	0
Over 3.5 goals	52%	59%	−7
Viking II or draw	76%	82%	−6
Viking II clean sheet	24%	–	–
Flekkerøy clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.5 3.5 2.5 1 5.5 7.7 5.6 2.8 2 6.1 8.7 6.3 3.1 3 4.7 6.6 4.8 2.4 4 2.8 3.9 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Viking II down, Flekkerøy across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 988 3. Division - Girone 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.7% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Viking II at home: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Flekkerøy away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.32 goals for Viking II, 1.46 for Flekkerøy. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FLE 3–2 VIK · VIK 5–0 FLE · FLE 0–1 VIK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 12 Sept

VIKING II

WDLLWL4–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 5–1 · 2–4

FLEKKERØY

LDWWLL1–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Madla	24	+34	51
2	Mandalskameratene	24	+21	46
3	Varhaug	25	+8	42
4	Flekkerøy	24	+7	39
5	Vindbjart	24	+19	38
6	Brodd	24	+6	36
7	Viking II	24	+21	35
8	Våg	24	+2	35
9	Stabæk II	24	−3	33
10	Odd II	24	−14	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	24	−15	26
12	Hinna	24	−23	26
13	Haugesund II	25	−24	25
14	Åkra	24	−39	18