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Varhaug v Madla

Varhaug

1–3Full time

Madla

3. Division - Girone 4 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Varhaug 1–3 Madla MADLA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Madla win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.472

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Madla win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Madla was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 33–22–44
1′KICK-OFF Varhaug v Madla
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Varhaug 0–1 Madla
22′18′ and it is 0–1: M. Dessingue on the scoresheet for Madla. 0–1 · 13–19–68
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Madla win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
42′We published Madla at 44%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Varhaug 1–1 Madla
45′HALF-TIME Varhaug 1–1 Madla
47′Varhaug ahead on 43′ through A. Odegard. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–35–36
47′SECOND HALF Varhaug 1–1 Madla
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Madla win: 44% at kick-off, 36% now
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Varhaug 1–2 Madla
69′S. Sandtorv scores for Madla on 53′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–18–78
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Madla win: 44% at kick-off, 78% now
87′⚽ GOAL · 18' Varhaug 1–3 Madla · M. Dessingue
87′⚽ GOAL · 43' Varhaug 1–3 Madla · A. Odegard
87′⚽ GOAL · 53' Varhaug 1–3 Madla · S. Sandtorv
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Varhaug 1–3 Madla
90′87′ and it is 1–3: J. Halsne on the scoresheet for Madla. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Madla win: 44% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Varhaug 1–3 Madla
FTVarhaug 1–3 Madla · Madla win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Varhaug win33%

Draw22%

Madla win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · madla winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Madla a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Varhaug win	33%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Madla win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Varhaug or draw	56%	–	–
Varhaug clean sheet	16%	–	–
Madla clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.6 6.0 5.5 3.4 1 5.1 9.4 8.4 5.2 2.5 2 4.1 7.3 6.6 4.1 3 2.2 3.9 3.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Varhaug down, Madla across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 974 3. Division - Girone 4 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.8% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Varhaug at home: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Madla away: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Varhaug, 1.86 for Madla. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MAD 1–1 VAR

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4

VARHAUG

WWLDWL2–0 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–4

MADLA

WWWDWL4–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Madla	22	+30	45
2	Mandalskameratene	22	+21	43
3	Flekkerøy	23	+8	39
4	Vindbjart	22	+24	38
5	Varhaug	22	+7	36
6	Viking II	22	+19	32
7	Stabæk II	22	−2	30
8	Brodd	22	−2	30
9	Våg	22	−3	29
10	Odd II	23	−10	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	22	−9	26
12	Hinna	22	−21	23
13	Haugesund II	22	−23	22
14	Åkra	22	−39	15