Varhaug v Haugesund II prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Varhaug 3–1 Haugesund II VARHAUG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Varhaug win~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.174

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Varhaug win at 66%.
1′Much as we predicted: Varhaug was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–16–18
1′KICK-OFF Varhaug v Haugesund II
11′A goal for Varhaug on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–11–8
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Varhaug 1–0 Haugesund II
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Varhaug win: 66% at kick-off, 81% now
12′We published Varhaug at 66%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–11–8
23′Varhaug score on 23′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–2
23′We published Varhaug at 66%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Varhaug 2–0 Haugesund II
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Varhaug win: 66% at kick-off, 93% now
33′Goals are coming at about the 4.5 we expected. 2–0 · 93–5–2
45′HALF-TIME Varhaug 2–0 Haugesund II
46′SECOND HALF Varhaug 2–0 Haugesund II
51′We published Varhaug at 66%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Varhaug win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
59′Haugesund II find the net on 58′. 2–1. 2–1 · 81–15–4
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Varhaug 2–1 Haugesund II
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Varhaug win: 66% at kick-off, 81% now
61′A red card for Haugesund II on 61′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 81–15–4
61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Haugesund II
66′A goal for Varhaug on 65′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Varhaug 3–1 Haugesund II
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Varhaug win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
84′We published Varhaug at 66%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Varhaug 3–1 Haugesund II
FTVarhaug 3–1 Haugesund II · Varhaug win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Varhaug are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Varhaug 66%, draw 16%, Haugesund II 18%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Varhaug v Haugesund IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Varhaug win66%

Draw16%

Haugesund II win18%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Varhaug

Haugesund II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Varhaug	24	+6	39
13	Haugesund II	24	−22	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · varhaug winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Varhaug a 66% chance to win. The model expects 3.0–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Varhaug v Haugesund II~~2.96 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 39 v 25~~4 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Varhaug win

Published at 64%, 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Varhaug win	66%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Haugesund II win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	82%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	65%	–	–
Varhaug or draw	82%	–	–
Varhaug clean sheet	22%	–	–
Haugesund II clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.4%

0123450 1 3.5 5.2 3.9 2.0 2 5.0 7.4 5.6 2.9 3 4.8 7.1 5.4 2.8 4 3.5 5.2 3.9 2.0 5 2.1 3.2 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Varhaug down, Haugesund II across0–5 goals a side shown (90.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 4 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.6% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Varhaug at home: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Haugesund II away: 1.17 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.96 goals for Varhaug, 1.53 for Haugesund II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HAU 2–2 VAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 12 Sept

VARHAUG

LDWLLW0–4 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 4–3

HAUGESUND II

LDLLWL0–3 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 3–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Madla	24	+34	51
2	Mandalskameratene	24	+21	46
3	Flekkerøy	24	+7	39
4	Varhaug	24	+6	39
5	Vindbjart	24	+19	38
6	Brodd	24	+6	36
7	Viking II	24	+21	35
8	Våg	24	+2	35
9	Stabæk II	24	−3	33
10	Odd II	24	−14	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	24	−15	26
12	Hinna	24	−23	26
13	Haugesund II	24	−22	25
14	Åkra	24	−39	18