Stabæk II v Hinna prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Stabæk II 2–2 Hinna STABÆK II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stabæk II win~~63%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.161

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.937

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stabæk II win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: Stabæk II was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–16–21
1′KICK-OFF Stabæk II v Hinna
36′Hinna score on 35′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 33–23–44
36′We said Stabæk II at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–23–44
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Stabæk II 0–1 Hinna
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Stabæk II win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Hinna win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Stabæk II win 56%)
39′Hinna find the net on 39′. 0–2. 0–2 · 15–17–69
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Stabæk II 0–2 Hinna
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Stabæk II win: 63% at kick-off, 15% now
40′We said Stabæk II at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–2 · 14–16–69
40′Goals are coming at about the 5.1 we expected. 0–2 · 14–16–69
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Stabæk II win: 63% at kick-off, 13% now
45′HALF-TIME Stabæk II 0–2 Hinna
46′SECOND HALF Stabæk II 0–2 Hinna
52′We said Stabæk II at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–15–76
65′We said Stabæk II at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Stabæk II win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
75′A goal for Stabæk II on 74′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 8–25–68
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Stabæk II 1–2 Hinna
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Stabæk II win: 63% at kick-off, 8% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Stabæk II win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
89′Stabæk II score on 88′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 11–83–6
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Stabæk II 2–2 Hinna
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Stabæk II win: 63% at kick-off, 11% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Hinna win 88%)
92′89′: P. Hanche-Olsen on the scoresheet for Stabæk II, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 7–90–4
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Stabæk II win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Stabæk II 2–2 Hinna
FTStabæk II 2–2 Hinna · Stabæk II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stabæk II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stabæk II 63%, draw 15%, Hinna 21%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 80%.

The AI’s read on Stabæk II v HinnaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Stabæk II win63%

Draw15%

Hinna win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stabæk II

Hinna

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Stabæk II	24	−3	33
12	Hinna	24	−23	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stabæk ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

63% The market29%

Us63%

~~Market~~29%

We make Stabæk II a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 34 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.2–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stabæk II v Hinna~~3.19 – 1.86

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 33 v 26~~9 v 12

~~The market · Stabæk II win~~29% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stabæk II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stabæk II win	63%	29%	+34
Draw	15%	22%	−7
Hinna win	21%	49%	−28
Over 2.5 goals	87%	79%	+8
Both teams to score	80%	77%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	73%	63%	+10
Stabæk II or draw	79%	51%	+28
Stabæk II clean sheet	16%	–	–
Hinna clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.2%

0123450 1 2.2 4.0 3.6 2.3 2 3.4 6.0 5.5 3.4 3 3.5 6.2 5.7 3.5 4 2.8 4.9 4.5 2.8 5 3.2 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Stabæk II down, Hinna across0–5 goals a side shown (87.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 988 3. Division - Girone 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.7% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 8.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stabæk II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hinna away: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.19 goals for Stabæk II, 1.86 for Hinna. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~8.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HIN 5–3 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 12 Sept

STABÆK II

WDLWWL3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 3–5

HINNA

LDWLLW1–4 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 2–4 · 0–4 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Madla	24	+34	51
2	Mandalskameratene	24	+21	46
3	Varhaug	25	+8	42
4	Flekkerøy	24	+7	39
5	Vindbjart	24	+19	38
6	Brodd	24	+6	36
7	Viking II	24	+21	35
8	Våg	24	+2	35
9	Stabæk II	24	−3	33
10	Odd II	24	−14	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	24	−15	26
12	Hinna	24	−23	26
13	Haugesund II	25	−24	25
14	Åkra	24	−39	18