Staal Jørpeland v Vindbjart prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Staal Jørpeland 3–2 Vindbjart VINDBJART WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vindbjart win~~50%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.776

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.542

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vindbjart win at 50%.
21′A goal for Vindbjart on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–16–70
21′We said Vindbjart at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 14–16–70
30′The goal count is tracking the 4.2 we expected. 0–1 · 12–17–70
46′Vindbjart score on 45′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–7–90
46′We said Vindbjart at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 3–7–90
46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Staal Jørpeland 0–2 Vindbjart
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Vindbjart win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
47′44′: H. Heggland on the scoresheet for Vindbjart, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–7–90
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Staal Jørpeland 1–2 Vindbjart
FTFULL TIME Staal Jørpeland 3–2 Vindbjart
FTStaal Jørpeland 3–2 Vindbjart · Vindbjart win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vindbjart are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Staal Jørpeland 30%, draw 19%, Vindbjart 50%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Staal Jørpeland v VindbjartBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Staal Jørpeland win30%

Draw19%

Vindbjart win50%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Staal Jørpeland

Vindbjart

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Vindbjart	24	+19	38
11	Staal Jørpeland	24	−15	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vindbjart winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 12:20 · locked at kick-off

50% The market40%

Us50%

~~Market~~40%

We make Vindbjart a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Staal Jørpeland v Vindbjart~~1.82 – 2.37

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 26 v 38~~11 v 5

~~The market · Vindbjart win~~40% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vindbjart win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Staal Jørpeland win	30%	41%	−11
Draw	19%	18%	+1
Vindbjart win	50%	40%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Both teams to score	75%	76%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Staal Jørpeland or draw	50%	60%	−10
Staal Jørpeland clean sheet	10%	–	–
Vindbjart clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.5%

0123450 3.8 4.4 3.4 2.1 1 2.9 6.6 7.5 5.9 3.5 2 2.6 5.9 6.7 5.2 3.1 3 3.6 4.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Staal Jørpeland down, Vindbjart across0–5 goals a side shown (94.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 988 3. Division - Girone 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.7% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.17 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Staal Jørpeland at home: 1.50 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vindbjart away: 3.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Staal Jørpeland, 2.37 for Vindbjart. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.17

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VIN 3–3 STA · STA 3–1 VIN · VIN 4–1 STA · STA 0–1 VIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 12 Sept

STAAL JØRPELAND

WDLWLL3–1 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 4–2 · 0–4 · 1–3

VINDBJART

LLWLLL1–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 3–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Madla	24	+34	51
2	Mandalskameratene	24	+21	46
3	Varhaug	25	+8	42
4	Flekkerøy	24	+7	39
5	Vindbjart	24	+19	38
6	Brodd	24	+6	36
7	Viking II	24	+21	35
8	Våg	24	+2	35
9	Stabæk II	24	−3	33
10	Odd II	24	−14	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	24	−15	26
12	Hinna	24	−23	26
13	Haugesund II	25	−24	25
14	Åkra	24	−39	18