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Staal Jørpeland v Våg

Staal Jørpeland

0–4Full time

Våg

3. Division - Girone 4 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Staal Jørpeland 0–4 Våg STAAL JØRPELAND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Staal Jørpeland win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.665

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Staal Jørpeland win at 44%.
21′Little has changed for our model: Staal Jørpeland 44% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–24–34
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Staal Jørpeland 0–1 Våg
41′⚽ GOAL · 37' Staal Jørpeland 0–1 Våg · C. Wahlstrom
42′C. Wahlstrom scores for Våg on 37′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–23–62
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Staal Jørpeland win: 44% at kick-off, 16% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Våg win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Staal Jørpeland win 16%)
45′Staal Jørpeland are down to ten from 45′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 15–23–62
45′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Staal Jørpeland
45′HALF-TIME Staal Jørpeland 0–1 Våg
47′SECOND HALF Staal Jørpeland 0–1 Våg
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Staal Jørpeland 0–2 Våg
80′⚽ GOAL · 86' Staal Jørpeland 0–3 Våg · O. Fuglestad
83′⚽ GOAL · 86' Staal Jørpeland 0–4 Våg · O. Fuglestad
FTFULL TIME Staal Jørpeland 0–4 Våg
FTStaal Jørpeland 0–4 Våg · Staal Jørpeland win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Staal Jørpeland win44%

Draw21%

Våg win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · staal jørpeland winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Staal Jørpeland a 44% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Staal Jørpeland win	44%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Våg win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Staal Jørpeland or draw	65%	–	–
Staal Jørpeland clean sheet	17%	–	–
Våg clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.7%

0123450 2.3 3.8 3.5 2.1 1 4.3 7.7 6.8 4.2 2 4.4 7.7 6.9 4.2 3 3.1 5.3 4.8 2.9 4 2.8 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Staal Jørpeland down, Våg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 974 3. Division - Girone 4 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.8% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Staal Jørpeland at home: 2.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Våg away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Staal Jørpeland, 1.82 for Våg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~VAG 0–1 STA

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4

STAAL JØRPELAND

LLWDLW1–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 4–2

VÅG

LWWDWW0–3 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Madla	22	+30	45
2	Mandalskameratene	22	+21	43
3	Flekkerøy	23	+8	39
4	Vindbjart	22	+24	38
5	Varhaug	22	+7	36
6	Viking II	22	+19	32
7	Stabæk II	22	−2	30
8	Brodd	22	−2	30
9	Våg	22	−3	29
10	Odd II	23	−10	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	22	−9	26
12	Hinna	22	−21	23
13	Haugesund II	22	−23	22
14	Åkra	22	−39	15