Mandalskameratene v Stabæk II prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Mandalskameratene 0–1 Stabæk II MANDALSKAMERATENE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mandalskameratene win~~64%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.102

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.214

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mandalskameratene win at 64%.
1′KICK-OFF Mandalskameratene v Stabæk II
2′Much as we predicted: Mandalskameratene was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–17–18
4′Much as we predicted: Mandalskameratene was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–17–18
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Mandalskameratene win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Mandalskameratene win: 64% at kick-off, 60% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Mandalskameratene win: 64% at kick-off, 60% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Mandalskameratene win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Mandalskameratene win: 64% at kick-off, 60% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Mandalskameratene win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
45′HALF-TIME Mandalskameratene 0–0 Stabæk II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Mandalskameratene win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
46′SECOND HALF Mandalskameratene 0–0 Stabæk II
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Mandalskameratene 0–1 Stabæk II
FTFULL TIME Mandalskameratene 0–1 Stabæk II
FTMandalskameratene 0–1 Stabæk II · Mandalskameratene win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Mandalskameratene win64%

Draw17%

Stabæk II win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mandalskameratene

Stabæk II

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Mandalskameratene	22	+21	43
9	Stabæk II	22	−2	30

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mandalskameratene winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

64% The market70%

Us64%

~~Market~~70%

We make Mandalskameratene a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mandalskameratene win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mandalskameratene win	64%	70%	−5
Draw	17%	16%	+1
Stabæk II win	19%	14%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Both teams to score	71%	72%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	92%	90%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	61%	67%	−5
Mandalskameratene or draw	81%	86%	−4
Mandalskameratene clean sheet	24%	–	–
Stabæk II clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.8%

0123450 2.2 1 4.1 5.9 4.3 2.1 2 5.5 7.8 5.7 2.9 3 5.0 7.1 5.2 2.6 4 3.5 5.0 3.6 5 2.1 2.9 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Mandalskameratene down, Stabæk II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 978 3. Division - Girone 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.5% of games this season, across 159 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 12.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mandalskameratene at home: 3.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Stabæk II away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.80 goals for Mandalskameratene, 1.47 for Stabæk II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~12.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STA 8–4 MAN

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4

MANDALSKAMERATENE

LWWWWW0–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 4–0

STABÆK II

WLWDLW2–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Madla	23	+32	48
2	Mandalskameratene	22	+21	43
3	Flekkerøy	23	+8	39
4	Vindbjart	23	+20	38
5	Varhaug	23	+5	36
6	Viking II	23	+23	35
7	Brodd	23	+2	33
8	Våg	23	+1	32
9	Stabæk II	22	−2	30
10	Odd II	23	−10	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	23	−13	26
12	Hinna	23	−25	23
13	Haugesund II	22	−23	22
14	Åkra	22	−39	15