Mandalskameratene v Madla prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Mandalskameratene 2–0 Madla MANDALSKAMERATENE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mandalskameratene win~~42%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.510

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.562

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mandalskameratene win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mandalskameratene was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–22–36
1′KICK-OFF Mandalskameratene v Madla
37′Mandalskameratene find the net on 37′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
37′We published Mandalskameratene at 42%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–13
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Mandalskameratene 1–0 Madla
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Mandalskameratene win: 42% at kick-off, 67% now
45′HALF-TIME Mandalskameratene 1–0 Madla
46′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 2–0 · 89–8–3
46′SECOND HALF Mandalskameratene 1–0 Madla
51′We published Mandalskameratene at 42%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Mandalskameratene win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
65′We published Mandalskameratene at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
74′We published Mandalskameratene at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Mandalskameratene win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
80′We published Mandalskameratene at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
84′We published Mandalskameratene at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Mandalskameratene win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
87′A goal for Mandalskameratene on 87′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′We published Mandalskameratene at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Mandalskameratene 2–0 Madla
FTFULL TIME Mandalskameratene 2–0 Madla
FTMandalskameratene 2–0 Madla · Mandalskameratene win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mandalskameratene are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mandalskameratene 42%, draw 21%, Madla 36%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Mandalskameratene v MadlaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mandalskameratene win42%

Draw21%

Madla win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mandalskameratene

Madla

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mandalskameratene winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market39%

Us42%

~~Market~~39%

We make Mandalskameratene a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mandalskameratene v Madla~~1.90 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 46 v 51~~2 v 1

~~The market · Mandalskameratene win~~39% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mandalskameratene win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mandalskameratene win	42%	39%	+3
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Madla win	36%	38%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	70%	75%	−5
Both teams to score	69%	74%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Mandalskameratene or draw	64%	62%	+2
Mandalskameratene clean sheet	18%	–	–
Madla clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.9 4.7 4.1 2.4 1 5.2 8.6 7.4 4.3 2 4.8 8.0 6.8 4.0 3 3.0 5.1 4.3 2.5 4 2.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mandalskameratene down, Madla across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 988 3. Division - Girone 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.7% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mandalskameratene at home: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Madla away: 3.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Mandalskameratene, 1.74 for Madla. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAD 2–2 MAN · MAN 0–4 MAD · MAD 5–2 MAN · MAN 4–0 MAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 12 Sept

MANDALSKAMERATENE

WWWWLW3–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 4–3

MADLA

WDWLWW4–1 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Madla	24	+34	51
2	Mandalskameratene	24	+21	46
3	Varhaug	25	+8	42
4	Flekkerøy	24	+7	39
5	Vindbjart	24	+19	38
6	Brodd	24	+6	36
7	Viking II	24	+21	35
8	Våg	24	+2	35
9	Stabæk II	24	−3	33
10	Odd II	24	−14	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	24	−15	26
12	Hinna	24	−23	26
13	Haugesund II	25	−24	25
14	Åkra	24	−39	18