Madla v Staal Jørpeland prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Madla 3–1 Staal Jørpeland MADLA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Madla win~~77%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.077

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.103

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Madla win at 77%.
1′KICK-OFF Madla v Staal Jørpeland
2′Much as we predicted: Madla was 77% before kick-off and our model makes it 77% now. 0–0 · 77–12–11
3′Madla score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 89–7–4
3′We published Madla at 77%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–7–4
3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Madla 1–0 Staal Jørpeland
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Madla win: 77% at kick-off, 89% now
4′3′: M. Dessingue on the scoresheet for Madla, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 89–7–4
11′Madla find the net on 11′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Madla 2–0 Staal Jørpeland
12′We published Madla at 77%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
14′A red card for Staal Jørpeland on 13′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 96–3–1
14′🟥 RED CARD · 13' Staal Jørpeland
31′Goals are coming at about the 4.7 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Madla 2–0 Staal Jørpeland
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Madla win: 77% at kick-off, 97% now
46′SECOND HALF Madla 2–0 Staal Jørpeland
59′A goal for Madla on 58′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
59′We published Madla at 77%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Madla 3–0 Staal Jørpeland
60′S. Sandtorv scores for Madla on 59′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Madla 3–1 Staal Jørpeland
FTMadla 3–1 Staal Jørpeland · Madla win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Madla are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Madla 77%, draw 12%, Staal Jørpeland 11%. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Madla v Staal JørpelandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Madla win77%

Draw12%

Staal Jørpeland win11%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Madla

Staal Jørpeland

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · madla winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

77% The market74%

Us77%

~~Market~~74%

We make Madla a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Madla v Staal Jørpeland~~3.46 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 48 v 26~~1 v 11

~~The market · Madla win~~74% · ours 77%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Madla win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Madla win	77%	74%	+3
Draw	12%	15%	−3
Staal Jørpeland win	11%	11%	0
Over 2.5 goals	84%	79%	+5
Both teams to score	69%	66%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	94%	91%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	69%	62%	+7
Madla or draw	89%	89%	0
Madla clean sheet	29%	–	–
Staal Jørpeland clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.4%

0123450 1 3.3 4.1 2.6 2 5.4 6.6 4.2 3 6.0 7.4 4.7 2.0 4 5.1 6.3 4.0 5 3.6 4.4 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Madla down, Staal Jørpeland across0–5 goals a side shown (85.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 4 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.5% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.75 goals a meeting; 8 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Madla at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Staal Jørpeland away: 2.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.46 goals for Madla, 1.28 for Staal Jørpeland. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.75

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~STA 0–3 MAD · MAD 3–2 STA · STA 1–4 MAD · STA 2–1 MAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 5 Sept

MADLA

WWDWLW2–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 0–1 · 3–1

STAAL JØRPELAND

LWDLWL0–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 4–2 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Madla	23	+32	48
2	Mandalskameratene	23	+20	43
3	Flekkerøy	23	+8	39
4	Vindbjart	23	+20	38
5	Varhaug	23	+5	36
6	Viking II	23	+23	35
7	Brodd	23	+2	33
8	Stabæk II	23	−1	33
9	Våg	23	+1	32
10	Odd II	23	−10	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	23	−13	26
12	Haugesund II	23	−21	25
13	Hinna	23	−25	23
14	Åkra	23	−41	15