Hinna v Viking II prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Hinna 4–2 Viking II VIKING II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Viking II win~~59%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.958

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.547

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Viking II win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Viking II 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 24–17–59
1′KICK-OFF Hinna v Viking II
19′Viking II find the net on 1′. 2–1. 2–1 · 44–21–35
19′We said Viking II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 2–1 · 44–21–35
19′⚽ GOAL · 1' Hinna 2–1 Viking II
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Hinna 2–1 Viking II
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Viking II win: 59% at kick-off, 35% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Hinna win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Viking II win 35%)
21′We said Viking II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 2–1 · 45–21–34
27′A goal for Hinna on 27′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 68–16–16
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Hinna 3–1 Viking II
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Viking II win: 59% at kick-off, 16% now
28′We said Viking II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 3–1 · 68–16–16
30′E. Ringlund scores for Hinna on 25′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 69–16–15
32′We said Viking II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 3–1 · 70–16–14
39′Hinna score on 39′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 88–8–4
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Hinna 4–1 Viking II
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Viking II win: 59% at kick-off, 4% now
40′We said Viking II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 4–1 · 89–7–4
40′5 goals already, more than the 4.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 89–7–4
44′37′: E. Ringlund on the scoresheet for Hinna, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 90–7–3
45′HALF-TIME Hinna 4–1 Viking II
46′SECOND HALF Hinna 4–1 Viking II
48′Viking II find the net on 48′. 4–2. 4–2 · 77–14–9
48′We said Viking II at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 4–2 · 77–14–9
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Hinna 4–2 Viking II
49′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.7 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 78–14–8
52′Viking II pull one back on 46′ through J. Middelthon. 4–2. 4–2 · 79–14–7
FTFULL TIME Hinna 4–2 Viking II
FTHinna 4–2 Viking II · Viking II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Viking II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hinna 24%, draw 17%, Viking II 59%. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 78%.

The AI’s read on Hinna v Viking IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hinna win24%

Draw17%

Viking II win59%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hinna

Viking II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Viking II	23	+23	35
13	Hinna	23	−25	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · viking ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market41%

Us59%

~~Market~~41%

We make Viking II a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–2.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hinna v Viking II~~1.81 – 2.85

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 35~~13 v 6

~~The market · Viking II win~~41% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Viking II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hinna win	24%	41%	−17
Draw	17%	18%	−1
Viking II win	59%	41%	+18
Over 2.5 goals	84%	81%	+3
Both teams to score	78%	78%	0
Over 1.5 goals	94%	91%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	68%	63%	+5
Hinna or draw	41%	59%	−18
Hinna clean sheet	6%	–	–
Viking II clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 6.8%

0123450 2.9 3.9 3.7 2.6 1 5.0 6.8 6.3 4.5 2.62 4.4 6.1 5.6 4.0 2.33 2.7 3.7 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hinna down, Viking II across0–5 goals a side shown (91.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 4 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.5% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hinna at home: 1.83 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Viking II away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Hinna, 2.85 for Viking II. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VIK 8–0 HIN · VIK 0–1 HIN · HIN 2–1 VIK · VIK 3–2 HIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 5 Sept

HINNA

LLDWLL0–2 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 2–4 · 0–4

VIKING II

WWDLLW3–1 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 5–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Madla	23	+32	48
2	Mandalskameratene	23	+20	43
3	Flekkerøy	23	+8	39
4	Vindbjart	23	+20	38
5	Varhaug	23	+5	36
6	Viking II	23	+23	35
7	Brodd	23	+2	33
8	Stabæk II	23	−1	33
9	Våg	23	+1	32
10	Odd II	23	−10	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	23	−13	26
12	Haugesund II	23	−21	25
13	Hinna	23	−25	23
14	Åkra	23	−41	15