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Model 1.2

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Haugesund II v Mandalskameratene

Haugesund II
3–4Full time
Mandalskameratene

3. Division - Girone 4 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Haugesund II 3–4 Mandalskameratene MANDALSKAMERATENE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Mandalskameratene win58%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.271
The market’s Brier score0.259

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay26 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Mandalskameratene win at 58%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Mandalskameratene was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 24–18–58
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Haugesund II v Mandalskameratene
  4. 20′Mandalskameratene find the net on 20′. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–14–76
  5. 20′We published Mandalskameratene at 58%. Our model now makes it 76%. 0–1 · 10–14–76
  6. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Haugesund II 0–1 Mandalskameratene
  7. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Mandalskameratene win: 58% at kick-off, 76% now
  8. 22′A goal for Haugesund II on 22′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–22–54
  9. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Haugesund II 1–1 Mandalskameratene
  10. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Mandalskameratene win: 58% at kick-off, 54% now
  11. 35′Goals are coming at about the 4.2 we expected. 1–1 · 24–25–51
  12. 40′Haugesund II score on 40′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 51–25–25
  13. 40′We said Mandalskameratene at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 2–1 · 51–25–25
  14. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Haugesund II 2–1 Mandalskameratene
  15. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Mandalskameratene win: 58% at kick-off, 25% now
  16. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Haugesund II win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Mandalskameratene win 25%)
  17. 41′We said Mandalskameratene at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–1 · 51–25–24
  18. 43′Haugesund II score on 39′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 52–25–23
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Haugesund II 2–1 Mandalskameratene
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Haugesund II 2–1 Mandalskameratene
  21. 49′A red card for Haugesund II on 49′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 54–26–20
  22. 49′🟥 RED CARD · 49' Haugesund II
  23. 50′Mandalskameratene find the net on 50′. 2–2. 2–2 · 23–31–45
  24. 50′We said Mandalskameratene at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 2–2 · 23–31–45
  25. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' W. Valenza · Haugesund II
  26. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Haugesund II 2–2 Mandalskameratene
  27. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Mandalskameratene win: 58% at kick-off, 45% now
  28. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Mandalskameratene win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Haugesund II win 23%)
  29. 53′We said Mandalskameratene at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 2–2 · 23–33–44
  30. 62′We said Mandalskameratene at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 22–39–39
  31. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Mandalskameratene win: 58% at kick-off, 38% now
  32. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Mandalskameratene win 37%)
  33. 69′We said Mandalskameratene at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 19–47–34
  34. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Mandalskameratene win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
  35. 82′We said Mandalskameratene at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 2–2 · 11–71–18
  36. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Mandalskameratene win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
  37. 84′We said Mandalskameratene at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 9–77–14
  38. 86′A goal for Haugesund II on 86′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 88–11–1
  39. 86′We said Mandalskameratene at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 3–2 · 88–11–1
  40. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Haugesund II 3–2 Mandalskameratene
  41. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Mandalskameratene win: 58% at kick-off, 1% now
  42. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Haugesund II win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
  43. 87′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.2 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 89–10–1
  44. 92′Mandalskameratene score on 90′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 3–91–5
  45. 92′We said Mandalskameratene at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 3–3 · 3–91–5
  46. 92′6 goals already, more than the 4.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 3–91–5
  47. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Haugesund II 3–3 Mandalskameratene
  48. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Haugesund II win 3%)
  49. 94′Mandalskameratene find the net on 90′. 3–4. 3–4 · 0–2–98
  50. 94′We published Mandalskameratene at 58%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–4 · 0–2–98
  51. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Haugesund II 3–4 Mandalskameratene
  52. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Mandalskameratene win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
  53. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Mandalskameratene win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
  54. 95′That is 7, and we only asked for 4.2 across ninety minutes. 3–4 · 0–2–98
  55. FTFULL TIME Haugesund II 3–4 Mandalskameratene
  56. FTHaugesund II 3–4 Mandalskameratene · Mandalskameratene win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mandalskameratene are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Haugesund II 24%, draw 18%, Mandalskameratene 58%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Haugesund II v MandalskamerateneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Haugesund II win24%
Draw18%
Mandalskameratene win58%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Haugesund II

Mandalskameratene

5Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Mandalskameratene23+2043
12Haugesund II23−2125

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mandalskameratene winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:42 · locked at kick-off
58% The market58%
Us58%
Market58%

We make Mandalskameratene a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–2.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Haugesund II v Mandalskameratene1.64 – 2.58
Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 5 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 25 v 4312 v 2
The market · Mandalskameratene win58% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 12:21
Our probability · Mandalskameratene win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Haugesund II win24%21%+3
Draw18%20%−2
Mandalskameratene win58%58%0
Over 2.5 goals78%75%+3
Both teams to score73%71%+2
Over 1.5 goals92%88%+4
Over 3.5 goals60%58%+2
Haugesund II or draw42%42%0
Haugesund II clean sheet8%––
Mandalskameratene clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.8%
0123450 4.0 5.0 4.2 2.8 1 2.6 6.3 7.8 6.6 4.3 2.32 2.1 5.1 6.3 5.3 3.4 3 2.8 3.5 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Haugesund II down, Mandalskameratene across0–5 goals a side shown (93.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsMAN 1–1 HAU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 5 Sept

HAUGESUND II

LLDLLW0–7 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–4 · 2–0

MANDALSKAMERATENE

WWWWWL2–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 4–0 · 0–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Madla23+3248
2Mandalskameratene23+2043
3Flekkerøy23+839
4Vindbjart23+2038
5Varhaug23+536
6Viking II23+2335
7Brodd23+233
8Stabæk II23−133
9Våg23+132
10Odd II23−1029
11Staal Jørpeland23−1326
12Haugesund II23−2125
13Hinna23−2523
14Åkra23−4115

The competition's standings before kick-off.