Haugesund II v Åkra prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31

Haugesund II 2–0 Åkra HAUGESUND II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Haugesund II win~~62%

~~The market said~~83%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.214

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.043

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Haugesund II win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Haugesund II 62% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–16–21
1′KICK-OFF Haugesund II v Åkra
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Haugesund II 1–0 Åkra
13′12′ and it is 1–0: Haugesund II have scored. 1–0 · 79–12–9
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 79% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 79% now
16′13′ and it is 1–0: I. Seone on the scoresheet for Haugesund II. 1–0 · 78–12–9
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
17′13′ and it is 1–0: I. Seone on the scoresheet for Haugesund II. 1–0 · 78–12–9
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
19′We said Haugesund II at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–12–9
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
35′⚽ GOAL · 13' Haugesund II 1–0 Åkra · I. Seone
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Haugesund II win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME Haugesund II 1–0 Åkra
46′SECOND HALF Haugesund II 1–0 Åkra
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Haugesund II 2–0 Åkra
FTFULL TIME Haugesund II 2–0 Åkra
FTHaugesund II 2–0 Åkra · Haugesund II win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Haugesund II win62%

Draw16%

Åkra win22%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Haugesund II

Åkra

8Days since last match9

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Haugesund II	22	−23	22
14	Åkra	22	−39	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · haugesund ii winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

62% The market83%

Us62%

~~Market~~83%

We make Haugesund II a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 83%. We are 21 points less confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · haugesund ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 83% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Haugesund II win	62%	83%	−21
Draw	16%	10%	+6
Åkra win	22%	7%	+15
Over 2.5 goals	85%	87%	−2
Both teams to score	78%	66%	+12
Over 1.5 goals	95%	93%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	70%	72%	−3
Haugesund II or draw	78%	93%	−15
Haugesund II clean sheet	18%	–	–
Åkra clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.6%

0123450 1 2.7 4.6 4.0 2.4 2 3.8 6.6 5.7 3.4 3 3.8 6.4 5.6 3.4 4 2.8 4.8 4.2 2.5 5 3.0 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Haugesund II down, Åkra across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 979 3. Division - Girone 4 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.0% of games this season, across 160 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 9.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Haugesund II at home: 1.83 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Åkra away: 1.67 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.02 goals for Haugesund II, 1.78 for Åkra. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~9.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~AKR 2–7 HAU

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4

HAUGESUND II

LLLDLL0–4 · 0–7 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–4

ÅKRA

LLLDLL1–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–6 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Madla	23	+32	48
2	Mandalskameratene	23	+20	43
3	Flekkerøy	23	+8	39
4	Vindbjart	23	+20	38
5	Varhaug	23	+5	36
6	Viking II	23	+23	35
7	Brodd	23	+2	33
8	Stabæk II	23	−1	33
9	Våg	23	+1	32
10	Odd II	23	−10	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	23	−13	26
12	Hinna	23	−25	23
13	Haugesund II	22	−23	22
14	Åkra	22	−39	15