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Brodd v Hinna

Brodd

4–0Full time

Hinna

3. Division - Girone 4 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Brodd 4–0 Hinna BRODD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brodd win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.217

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brodd win at 62%.
2′KICK-OFF Brodd v Hinna
3′Little has changed for our model: Brodd 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–17–21
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Brodd 1–0 Hinna
24′Brodd ahead on 6′ through V. Aasen. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–13–8
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Brodd win: 62% at kick-off, 78% now
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Brodd 2–0 Hinna
44′43′ and it is 2–0: Hinna have scored. 2–0 · 93–5–2
44′PENALTY MISSED · 43' Hinna
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Brodd win: 62% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Brodd 2–0 Hinna
49′We said Brodd at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
49′SECOND HALF Brodd 2–0 Hinna
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Brodd 3–0 Hinna
70′Brodd ahead on 66′ through M. Sveingard. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Brodd 4–0 Hinna
88′⚽ GOAL · 6' Brodd 4–0 Hinna · V. Aasen
88′⚽ GOAL · 24' Brodd 4–0 Hinna · I. Hebnes
88′PENALTY MISSED · 43' Hinna
88′⚽ GOAL · 66' Brodd 4–0 Hinna · M. Sveingard
88′⚽ GOAL · 85' Brodd 4–0 Hinna · M. Bergesen
90′M. Bergesen scores for Brodd on 85′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Brodd 4–0 Hinna
FTBrodd 4–0 Hinna · Brodd win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Brodd win62%

Draw17%

Hinna win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brodd winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Brodd a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brodd win	62%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Hinna win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	82%	–	–
Both teams to score	75%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	65%	–	–
Brodd or draw	79%	–	–
Brodd clean sheet	20%	–	–
Hinna clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.3%

0123450 1 3.3 5.4 4.3 2.4 2 4.6 7.3 5.9 3.3 3 4.3 6.8 5.5 3.0 4 3.1 4.8 3.9 2.2 5 2.8 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Brodd down, Hinna across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 974 3. Division - Girone 4 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.8% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brodd at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hinna away: 2.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.85 goals for Brodd, 1.65 for Hinna. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HIN 3–3 BRO

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4

BRODD

WLLDLW3–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0

HINNA

WLLDWL3–0 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Madla	22	+30	45
2	Mandalskameratene	22	+21	43
3	Flekkerøy	23	+8	39
4	Vindbjart	22	+24	38
5	Varhaug	22	+7	36
6	Viking II	22	+19	32
7	Stabæk II	22	−2	30
8	Brodd	22	−2	30
9	Våg	22	−3	29
10	Odd II	23	−10	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	22	−9	26
12	Hinna	22	−21	23
13	Haugesund II	22	−23	22
14	Åkra	22	−39	15