Brodd v Åkra prediction · 3. Division - Girone 4

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Brodd 6–1 Åkra BRODD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brodd win~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.093

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brodd win at 75%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Brodd 75% before kick-off, 75% now. 0–0 · 75–13–12
1′KICK-OFF Brodd v Åkra
2′Brodd score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 88–7–4
2′We said Brodd at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–7–4
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Brodd 1–0 Åkra
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Brodd win: 75% at kick-off, 88% now
28′Brodd find the net on 28′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Brodd 2–0 Åkra
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Brodd win: 75% at kick-off, 96% now
29′We said Brodd at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
30′GOAL DISALLOWED · 30' Brodd
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Brodd win: 75% at kick-off, 86% now
35′Brodd find the net on 35′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Brodd 2–0 Åkra
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Brodd win: 75% at kick-off, 96% now
36′The goal count is tracking the 4.4 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Brodd 2–0 Åkra
46′SECOND HALF Brodd 2–0 Åkra
47′A goal for Brodd on 47′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Brodd 3–0 Åkra
49′GOAL DISALLOWED · 49' Brodd
52′A goal for Brodd on 52′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–0–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Brodd 3–0 Åkra
53′We said Brodd at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
54′Åkra score on 53′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Brodd 3–1 Åkra
60′Brodd find the net on 60′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
60′5 goals already, more than the 4.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Brodd 4–1 Åkra
62′A goal for Brodd on 62′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Brodd 5–1 Åkra
63′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.4 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
63′7 goals already, more than the 4.4 we expected for the whole match. 6–1 · 100–0–0
64′Brodd score on 63′ to make it 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Brodd 6–1 Åkra
FTFULL TIME Brodd 6–1 Åkra
FTBrodd 6–1 Åkra · Brodd win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brodd are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brodd 75%, draw 13%, Åkra 12%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Brodd v ÅkraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Brodd win75%

Draw13%

Åkra win12%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brodd

Åkra

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

Last match: 19 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Brodd	24	+6	36
14	Åkra	24	−39	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brodd winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

75% The market–

Us75%

We make Brodd a 75% chance to win. The model expects 3.2–1.2, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brodd v Åkra~~3.20 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 36 v 18~~6 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brodd win

Published at 76%, 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brodd win	75%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Åkra win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Brodd or draw	88%	–	–
Brodd clean sheet	30%	–	–
Åkra clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.6%

0123450 1 4.1 4.9 3.0 2 6.2 7.4 4.5 3 6.5 7.6 4.6 4 5.1 6.0 3.7 5 3.3 3.9 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Brodd down, Åkra across0–5 goals a side shown (88.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 988 3. Division - Girone 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.7% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brodd at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Åkra away: 1.50 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.20 goals for Brodd, 1.22 for Åkra. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AKR 1–4 BRO · AKR 3–2 BRO · BRO 3–1 AKR · AKR 1–1 BRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 12 Sept

BRODD

LDLWWW1–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 4–0

ÅKRA

LDLLLW1–2 · 2–2 · 0–6 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 5–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Madla	24	+34	51
2	Mandalskameratene	24	+21	46
3	Varhaug	25	+8	42
4	Flekkerøy	24	+7	39
5	Vindbjart	24	+19	38
6	Brodd	24	+6	36
7	Viking II	24	+21	35
8	Våg	24	+2	35
9	Stabæk II	24	−3	33
10	Odd II	24	−14	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	24	−15	26
12	Hinna	24	−23	26
13	Haugesund II	25	−24	25
14	Åkra	24	−39	18