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Home › Football › 3. Division - Girone 4 › Åkra v Stabæk II

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Åkra v Stabæk II

Åkra
5–3Full time
Stabæk II

3. Division - Girone 4 · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00
Åkra 5–3 Stabæk II STABÆK II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Stabæk II win58%
The market said68%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.950
The market’s Brier score1.218

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay24 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Stabæk II win at 58%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Stabæk II was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 24–18–58
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Åkra v Stabæk II
  4. 5′A goal for Åkra on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 43–20–37
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Åkra 1–0 Stabæk II
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Stabæk II win: 58% at kick-off, 37% now
  7. 5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Åkra win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Stabæk II win 57%)
  8. 6′We said Stabæk II at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–0 · 43–20–37
  9. 8′Stabæk II score on 8′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 24–19–57
  10. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Åkra 1–1 Stabæk II
  11. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Stabæk II win: 58% at kick-off, 57% now
  12. 8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Stabæk II win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Åkra win 43%)
  13. 9′7′: R. Ferrington on the scoresheet for Stabæk II, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 24–19–57
  14. 17′We published Stabæk II at 58%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–2 · 10–14–76
  15. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Åkra 1–2 Stabæk II
  16. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Stabæk II win: 58% at kick-off, 76% now
  17. 18′Stabæk II find the net on 17′. 1–2. 1–2 · 10–14–76
  18. 22′Stabæk II ahead on 15′ through C. Bachke. 1–2. 1–2 · 10–14–76
  19. 29′A goal for Åkra on 29′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 24–24–52
  20. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Åkra 2–2 Stabæk II
  21. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Stabæk II win: 58% at kick-off, 52% now
  22. 33′J. Simonsen scores for Åkra on 28′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 24–25–51
  23. 41′Åkra score on 41′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 51–25–24
  24. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Åkra 3–2 Stabæk II
  25. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Stabæk II win: 58% at kick-off, 24% now
  26. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Åkra win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Stabæk II win 49%)
  27. 42′We said Stabæk II at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 3–2 · 51–25–24
  28. 42′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.2 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 51–25–24
  29. 43′40′: J. Simonsen on the scoresheet for Åkra, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 52–25–23
  30. 45′HALF-TIME Åkra 3–2 Stabæk II
  31. 46′SECOND HALF Åkra 3–2 Stabæk II
  32. 51′We said Stabæk II at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 3–2 · 55–26–19
  33. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Stabæk II win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
  34. 56′Åkra find the net on 56′. 4–2. 4–2 · 83–12–5
  35. 56′We said Stabæk II at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 4–2 · 83–12–5
  36. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Åkra 4–2 Stabæk II
  37. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Stabæk II win: 58% at kick-off, 5% now
  38. 58′We said Stabæk II at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 4–2 · 84–11–4
  39. 58′A goal for Stabæk II on 58′ — 4–3. 4–3 · 58–26–16
  40. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Åkra 4–3 Stabæk II
  41. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Stabæk II win: 58% at kick-off, 16% now
  42. 59′That is 7, and we only asked for 4.2 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 59–26–15
  43. 60′We said Stabæk II at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 4–3 · 59–26–14
  44. 64′Åkra score on 64′ to make it 5–3. 5–3 · 88–9–3
  45. 64′8 goals already, more than the 4.2 we expected for the whole match. 5–3 · 88–9–3
  46. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Åkra 5–3 Stabæk II
  47. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Stabæk II win: 58% at kick-off, 3% now
  48. 67′71′: S. Weltzien on the scoresheet for Åkra, making it 5–3. 5–3 · 90–8–2
  49. FTFULL TIME Åkra 5–3 Stabæk II
  50. FTÅkra 5–3 Stabæk II · Stabæk II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stabæk II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Åkra 24%, draw 18%, Stabæk II 58%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Åkra v Stabæk IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Åkra win24%
Draw18%
Stabæk II win58%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Åkra

Stabæk II

7Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Stabæk II23−133
14Åkra23−4115

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stabæk ii winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
58% The market68%
Us58%
Market68%

We make Stabæk II a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Åkra v Stabæk II1.61 – 2.58
Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 5 SeptW0 D1 L5 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 15 v 3314 v 9
The market · Stabæk II win68% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 13 OCT 05:4219 OCT 16:41
Our probability · Stabæk II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Åkra win24%15%+9
Draw18%17%+1
Stabæk II win58%68%−10
Over 2.5 goals78%79%−1
Both teams to score73%70%+3
Over 1.5 goals92%91%+1
Over 3.5 goals60%63%−3
Åkra or draw42%32%+10
Åkra clean sheet8%––
Stabæk II clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.9%
0123450 4.1 5.1 4.3 2.8 1 2.6 6.4 7.9 6.6 4.3 2.32 2.1 5.1 6.3 5.3 3.4 3 2.8 3.4 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Åkra down, Stabæk II across0–5 goals a side shown (93.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021
Goals a meeting5.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsSTA 4–1 AKR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 4 this season · since 5 Sept

ÅKRA

LLDLLL2–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–6 · 0–4 · 0–2

STABÆK II

LWDLWW1–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Madla24+3451
2Mandalskameratene24+2146
3Flekkerøy24+739
4Varhaug24+639
5Vindbjart24+1938
6Brodd24+636
7Viking II24+2135
8Våg24+235
9Stabæk II23−133
10Odd II24−1429
11Staal Jørpeland24−1526
12Hinna24−2326
13Haugesund II24−2225
14Åkra23−4115

The competition's standings before kick-off.