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Varegg v Stord

Varegg

2–3Full time

Stord

3. Division - Girone 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Varegg 2–3 Stord VAREGG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Varegg win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.894

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Varegg win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Varegg 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–20–25
1′KICK-OFF Varegg v Stord
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Varegg 0–1 Stord
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Varegg 0–2 Stord
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Varegg 1–2 Stord
22′Varegg find the net on 20′. 1–2. 1–2 · 29–23–48
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Varegg win: 55% at kick-off, 29% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Stord win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Varegg win 29%)
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Varegg 2–2 Stord
43′O. Hauge scores for Varegg on 38′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 46–29–25
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Varegg win: 55% at kick-off, 46% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Varegg win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Stord win 25%)
45′HALF-TIME Varegg 2–2 Stord
48′48′ and it is 2–2: Stord have scored. 2–2 · 44–31–24
48′SECOND HALF Varegg 2–2 Stord
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Varegg win: 55% at kick-off, 44% now
53′⚽ GOAL · 48' Varegg 2–3 Stord
70′We said Varegg at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–3 · 7–24–69
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Varegg win: 55% at kick-off, 7% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Stord win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Varegg win 7%)
87′⚽ GOAL · 3' Varegg 2–3 Stord · R. B. Ekeland
87′⚽ GOAL · 16' Varegg 2–3 Stord · E. Traeet
87′⚽ GOAL · 20' Varegg 2–3 Stord · N. Kalvenes
87′⚽ GOAL · 38' Varegg 2–3 Stord · O. Hauge
87′⚽ GOAL · 48' Varegg 2–3 Stord
90′We said Varegg at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 2–3 · 0–0–100
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Varegg win: 55% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Varegg 2–3 Stord
FTVaregg 2–3 Stord · Varegg win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Varegg win55%

Draw19%

Stord win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · varegg winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Varegg a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Varegg win	55%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Stord win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Varegg or draw	74%	–	–
Varegg clean sheet	21%	–	–
Stord clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 3.3 2.5 1 4.8 7.0 5.6 3.0 2 5.4 8.3 6.5 3.4 3 4.3 6.5 5.1 2.7 4 2.6 3.9 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Varegg down, Stord across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 973 3. Division - Girone 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.6% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Varegg at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Stord away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.39 goals for Varegg, 1.58 for Stord. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STO 1–1 VAR

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3

VAREGG

LDWDWW1–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 2–1

STORD

DLDLWL1–1 · 3–5 · 3–3 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Os	22	+35	49
2	Djerv	22	+28	47
3	Askøy	22	+13	43
4	Fana	22	+16	38
5	Vard	22	+16	38
6	Brann II	22	+12	36
7	Austevoll	22	−7	33
8	Førde	22	−7	31
9	Sogndal II	22	+10	27
10	Varegg	22	−8	23
11	Stord	22	−17	21
12	Åsane II	22	−14	19
13	Gneist	22	−26	18
14	Fyllingsdalen	22	−51	6