Stord v Gneist prediction · 3. Division - Girone 3

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Stord 5–2 Gneist STORD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stord win~~61%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.230

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.311

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stord win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Stord 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–16–23
1′KICK-OFF Stord v Gneist
11′A goal for Stord on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–12–11
11′We said Stord at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–12–11
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Stord 1–0 Gneist
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Stord win: 61% at kick-off, 77% now
42′Stord score on 42′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
42′We said Stord at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Stord 2–0 Gneist
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Stord win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
43′The goal count is tracking the 4.9 we expected. 2–0 · 92–6–2
45′HALF-TIME Stord 2–0 Gneist
46′SECOND HALF Stord 2–0 Gneist
56′Gneist find the net on 55′. 2–1. 2–1 · 77–16–6
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Stord 2–1 Gneist
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Stord win: 61% at kick-off, 77% now
66′A goal for Stord on 66′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
66′We said Stord at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Stord 3–1 Gneist
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Stord win: 61% at kick-off, 95% now
70′Gneist score on 70′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 80–16–4
70′We said Stord at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 3–2 · 80–16–4
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Stord 3–2 Gneist
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Stord win: 61% at kick-off, 80% now
71′5 goals already, more than the 4.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 81–16–3
77′Stord find the net on 77′. 4–2. 4–2 · 98–2–0
77′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.9 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 98–2–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Stord 4–2 Gneist
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Stord win: 61% at kick-off, 98% now
86′We said Stord at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Stord 5–2 Gneist
FTStord 5–2 Gneist · Stord win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stord are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stord 61%, draw 16%, Gneist 23%. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 79%.

The AI’s read on Stord v GneistBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stord win61%

Draw16%

Gneist win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stord

Gneist

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Stord	23	−17	24
13	Gneist	23	−28	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stord winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

61% The market55%

Us61%

~~Market~~55%

We make Stord a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stord v Gneist~~3.00 – 1.85

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 24 v 18~~10 v 13

~~The market · Stord win~~55% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stord win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stord win	61%	55%	+6
Draw	16%	22%	−6
Gneist win	23%	24%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	85%	78%	+7
Both teams to score	79%	75%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	95%	90%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	70%	62%	+8
Stord or draw	77%	76%	+1
Stord clean sheet	16%	–	–
Gneist clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.5%

0123450 1 2.6 4.4 4.1 2.5 2 3.6 6.5 5.8 3.6 3 3.5 6.3 5.7 3.5 4 2.6 4.7 4.3 2.6 5 2.9 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Stord down, Gneist across0–5 goals a side shown (89.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 3 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.4% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023 in every competition we cover, 7.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stord at home: 1.67 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Gneist away: 1.17 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.00 goals for Stord, 1.85 for Gneist. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~7.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GNE 3–4 STO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 5 Sept

STORD

LDLWLW3–5 · 3–3 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–2

GNEIST

DWDLLL3–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 3–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Os	23	+37	52
2	Djerv	23	+29	50
3	Askøy	23	+11	43
4	Vard	23	+20	41
5	Fana	23	+19	41
6	Brann II	23	+11	36
7	Austevoll	23	−6	36
8	Førde	23	−8	31
9	Sogndal II	23	+12	30
10	Stord	23	−17	24
11	Varegg	23	−9	23
12	Åsane II	23	−18	19
13	Gneist	23	−28	18
14	Fyllingsdalen	23	−53	6