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Sogndal II v Gneist

Sogndal II

5–3Full time

Gneist

3. Division - Girone 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Sogndal II 5–3 Gneist SOGNDAL II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sogndal II win~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.118

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sogndal II win at 72%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sogndal II was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 72% now. 0–0 · 72–14–14
1′KICK-OFF Sogndal II v Gneist
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Sogndal II 1–0 Gneist
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Sogndal II 2–0 Gneist
23′We published Sogndal II at 72%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–2
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Sogndal II win: 72% at kick-off, 94% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Sogndal II 2–1 Gneist
41′⚽ GOAL · 12' Sogndal II 2–1 Gneist · M. Ali
41′⚽ GOAL · 18' Sogndal II 2–1 Gneist · M. Ali
41′⚽ GOAL · 34' Sogndal II 2–1 Gneist · A. Kvamsdal
44′34′ and it is 2–1: A. Kvamsdal on the scoresheet for Gneist. 2–1 · 83–12–5
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Sogndal II win: 72% at kick-off, 83% now
45′HALF-TIME Sogndal II 2–1 Gneist
49′SECOND HALF Sogndal II 2–1 Gneist
52′Goals are coming at about the 5.1 we expected. 2–1 · 83–13–5
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Sogndal II 3–2 Gneist
73′⚽ GOAL · 69' Sogndal II 3–3 Gneist · T. Sagstad
90′⚽ GOAL · 97' Sogndal II 4–3 Gneist
FTFULL TIME Sogndal II 5–3 Gneist
FTSogndal II 5–3 Gneist · Sogndal II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sogndal II win72%

Draw13%

Gneist win15%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sogndal ii winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Sogndal II a 72% chance to win. The model expects 3.5–1.6, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sogndal II win	72%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Gneist win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	87%	–	–
Both teams to score	76%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	74%	–	–
Sogndal II or draw	85%	–	–
Sogndal II clean sheet	21%	–	–
Gneist clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.8%

0123450 1 2.4 3.6 2.9 2 3.9 6.0 4.8 2.6 3 4.4 6.8 5.4 2.9 4 3.7 5.8 4.6 2.5 5 2.6 4.0 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Sogndal II down, Gneist across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 973 3. Division - Girone 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.6% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 10.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sogndal II at home: 3.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gneist away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.45 goals for Sogndal II, 1.61 for Gneist. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~10.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GNE 4–6 SOG

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3

SOGNDAL II

LWLLLL3–4 · 7–0 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 2–3

GNEIST

LDWDLL0–2 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Os	22	+35	49
2	Djerv	22	+28	47
3	Askøy	22	+13	43
4	Fana	22	+16	38
5	Vard	22	+16	38
6	Brann II	22	+12	36
7	Austevoll	22	−7	33
8	Førde	22	−7	31
9	Sogndal II	22	+10	27
10	Varegg	22	−8	23
11	Stord	22	−17	21
12	Åsane II	22	−14	19
13	Gneist	22	−26	18
14	Fyllingsdalen	22	−51	6