Os v Sogndal II prediction · 3. Division - Girone 3

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Os 5–1 Sogndal II OS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Os win~~68%

~~The market said~~81%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.151

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.055

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Os win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: Os was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–14–18
1′KICK-OFF Os v Sogndal II
8′Os find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–10–9
8′We published Os at 68%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–10–9
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Os 1–0 Sogndal II
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Os win: 68% at kick-off, 82% now
11′Os ahead on 7′ through R. Vindenes. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–10–8
37′A goal for Os on 37′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–5–2
37′We published Os at 68%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–5–2
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Os 2–0 Sogndal II
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Os win: 68% at kick-off, 92% now
38′Goals are coming at about the 5.5 we expected. 2–0 · 93–5–2
40′H. T. Sperrevik scores for Os on 36′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–2
45′HALF-TIME Os 2–0 Sogndal II
46′SECOND HALF Os 2–0 Sogndal II
58′We published Os at 68%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
65′Os score on 64′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Os 3–0 Sogndal II
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Os win: 68% at kick-off, 99% now
70′We published Os at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
74′63′: R. Vindenes on the scoresheet for Os, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′Os find the net on 77′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Os 4–0 Sogndal II
79′Os ahead on 76′ through H. T. Sperrevik. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
80′A goal for Sogndal II on 79′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Os 4–1 Sogndal II
83′S. Stavo scores for Sogndal II on 78′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
92′Os score on 90′ to make it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Os 5–1 Sogndal II
93′6 goals already, more than the 5.5 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Os 5–1 Sogndal II
FTOs 5–1 Sogndal II · Os win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Os are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Os 68%, draw 14%, Sogndal II 18%. Over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 82%.

The AI’s read on Os v Sogndal IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Os win68%

Draw14%

Sogndal II win18%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Os

Sogndal II

9Days since last match9

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Os	23	+37	52
9	Sogndal II	23	+12	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · os winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

68% The market81%

Us68%

~~Market~~81%

We make Os a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 3.6–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Os v Sogndal II~~3.57 – 1.90

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 52 v 30~~2 v 9

~~The market · Os win~~81% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Os win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Os win	68%	81%	−13
Draw	14%	12%	+2
Sogndal II win	18%	7%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	90%	85%	+5
Both teams to score	82%	67%	+15
Over 1.5 goals	97%	95%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	78%	73%	+5
Os or draw	82%	93%	−11
Os clean sheet	16%	–	–
Sogndal II clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 5.9%

0123450 1 3.0 2.8 2 2.8 5.2 4.8 3.0 3 3.2 5.9 5.5 3.5 4 2.8 5.2 4.8 3.0 5 2.0 3.7 3.4 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Os down, Sogndal II across0–5 goals a side shown (82.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 984 3. Division - Girone 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 77.0% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Os at home: 3.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sogndal II away: 1.67 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.57 goals for Os, 1.90 for Sogndal II. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SOG 5–1 OS · SOG 0–3 OS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 5 Sept

OS

WLWLDW2–0 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 2–0

SOGNDAL II

WLLLLW7–0 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 5–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Djerv	24	+31	53
2	Os	23	+37	52
3	Fana	24	+22	44
4	Vard	24	+21	44
5	Askøy	24	+10	43
6	Brann II	23	+11	36
7	Austevoll	23	−6	36
8	Førde	24	−10	31
9	Sogndal II	23	+12	30
10	Stord	24	−14	27
11	Varegg	23	−9	23
12	Åsane II	23	−18	19
13	Gneist	24	−31	18
14	Fyllingsdalen	24	−56	6