Fyllingsdalen v Vard prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Fyllingsdalen 1–4 Vard VARD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vard win~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.093

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vard win at 75%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vard was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 75% now. 0–0 · 12–13–75
1′KICK-OFF Fyllingsdalen v Vard
35′Fyllingsdalen find the net on 34′. 1–0. 1–0 · 35–25–41
35′We said Vard at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 1–0 · 35–25–41
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Fyllingsdalen 1–0 Vard
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Vard win: 75% at kick-off, 41% now
37′We said Vard at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–0 · 35–25–39
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Vard win: 75% at kick-off, 35% now
45′We said Vard at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 39–27–34
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Fyllingsdalen win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Vard win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME Fyllingsdalen 1–0 Vard
46′SECOND HALF Fyllingsdalen 1–0 Vard
48′A goal for Vard on 48′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 14–26–60
48′We said Vard at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 60%. 1–1 · 14–26–60
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Fyllingsdalen 1–1 Vard
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Vard win: 75% at kick-off, 60% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Vard win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Fyllingsdalen win 40%)
49′We said Vard at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 15–26–59
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Vard win: 75% at kick-off, 55% now
57′We said Vard at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 14–31–54
62′Vard score on 62′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–12–86
62′Goals are coming at about the 4.5 we expected. 1–2 · 2–12–86
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Fyllingsdalen 1–2 Vard
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Vard win: 75% at kick-off, 86% now
68′We published Vard at 75%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–2 · 2–11–87
71′Vard find the net on 71′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–98
71′We published Vard at 75%. Our model now makes it 98%. 1–3 · 0–1–98
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Fyllingsdalen 1–3 Vard
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Vard win: 75% at kick-off, 98% now
74′Vard ahead on 70′ through A. Eide. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
82′A goal for Vard on 82′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
82′We published Vard at 75%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Fyllingsdalen 1–4 Vard
83′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.5 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Fyllingsdalen 1–4 Vard
FTFyllingsdalen 1–4 Vard · Vard win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vard are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fyllingsdalen 12%, draw 13%, Vard 75%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Fyllingsdalen v VardBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Fyllingsdalen win12%

Draw13%

Vard win75%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fyllingsdalen

Vard

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Vard	24	+21	44
14	Fyllingsdalen	24	−56	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vard winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

75% The market–

Us75%

We make Vard a 75% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–3.2, and 1–3 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fyllingsdalen v Vard~~1.24 – 3.23

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 44~~14 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fyllingsdalen win	12%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Vard win	75%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Fyllingsdalen or draw	25%	–	–
Fyllingsdalen clean sheet	4%	–	–
Vard clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–3 at 7.6%

0123450 4.0 6.1 6.4 5.1 3.41 4.7 7.3 7.6 6.0 3.92 3.0 4.5 4.7 3.7 2.43 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fyllingsdalen down, Vard across0–5 goals a side shown (88.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 3 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.8% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 8.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fyllingsdalen at home: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Vard away: 2.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Fyllingsdalen, 3.23 for Vard. Most likely score 1–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~8.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~VAR 6–2 FYL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 12 Sept

FYLLINGSDALEN

LLLLLL1–2 · 0–7 · 1–2 · 2–6 · 0–2 · 1–4

VARD

WWWWWW9–0 · 4–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Os	24	+41	55
2	Djerv	24	+31	53
3	Fana	24	+22	44
4	Vard	24	+21	44
5	Askøy	24	+10	43
6	Brann II	24	+11	37
7	Austevoll	24	−6	37
8	Førde	24	−10	31
9	Sogndal II	24	+8	30
10	Stord	24	−14	27
11	Varegg	24	−11	23
12	Åsane II	24	−16	22
13	Gneist	24	−31	18
14	Fyllingsdalen	24	−56	6