Førde v Djerv prediction · 3. Division - Girone 3

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Førde 1–3 Djerv DJERV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Djerv win~~52%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.353

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.243

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Djerv win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Djerv 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 29–20–52
1′KICK-OFF Førde v Djerv
19′Djerv score on 18′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–16–72
19′We said Djerv at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 12–16–72
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Førde 0–1 Djerv
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Djerv win: 52% at kick-off, 72% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.9 we expected. 0–1 · 11–17–72
44′Førde find the net on 44′. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–30–43
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Førde 1–1 Djerv
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Djerv win: 52% at kick-off, 43% now
45′HALF-TIME Førde 1–1 Djerv
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Djerv win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
46′SECOND HALF Førde 1–1 Djerv
52′We said Djerv at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 26–34–40
54′We said Djerv at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 25–35–39
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Djerv win 35%)
64′We said Djerv at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 23–43–34
65′A goal for Djerv on 65′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 5–18–78
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Førde 1–2 Djerv
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Djerv win: 52% at kick-off, 78% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Djerv win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
66′We said Djerv at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–2 · 4–18–78
70′We said Djerv at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Djerv win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
76′Djerv score on 76′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
76′We said Djerv at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 1–3 · 0–2–98
76′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.9 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–98
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Førde 1–3 Djerv
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Djerv win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
77′75′: A. Fjeldstad on the scoresheet for Djerv, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
84′We said Djerv at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Førde 1–3 Djerv
FTFørde 1–3 Djerv · Djerv win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Djerv are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Førde 29%, draw 20%, Djerv 52%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Førde v DjervBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Førde win29%

Draw20%

Djerv win52%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Førde

Djerv

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 3

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Djerv	23	+29	50
8	Førde	23	−8	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · djerv winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market60%

Us52%

~~Market~~60%

We make Djerv a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Førde v Djerv~~1.64 – 2.26

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 31 v 50~~8 v 2

~~The market · Djerv win~~60% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Djerv win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Førde win	29%	21%	+8
Draw	20%	19%	+1
Djerv win	52%	60%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	74%	77%	−3
Both teams to score	71%	71%	0
Over 1.5 goals	89%	89%	0
Over 3.5 goals	54%	59%	−5
Førde or draw	48%	40%	+8
Førde clean sheet	11%	–	–
Djerv clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.2%

0123450 2.0 4.9 5.2 3.9 2.2 1 3.7 7.3 8.2 6.1 3.5 2 2.8 6.1 6.7 5.0 2.8 3 3.4 3.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Førde down, Djerv across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 3 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.4% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Førde at home: 3.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Djerv away: 3.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Førde, 2.26 for Djerv. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DJE 3–2 FOR · DJE 1–1 FOR · FOR 2–0 DJE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 5 Sept

FØRDE

LLLDWL0–2 · 0–9 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 6–2 · 2–3

DJERV

WWWWWW3–2 · 5–2 · 4–3 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Os	23	+37	52
2	Djerv	23	+29	50
3	Askøy	23	+11	43
4	Vard	23	+20	41
5	Fana	23	+19	41
6	Brann II	23	+11	36
7	Austevoll	23	−6	36
8	Førde	23	−8	31
9	Sogndal II	23	+12	30
10	Stord	23	−17	24
11	Varegg	23	−9	23
12	Åsane II	23	−18	19
13	Gneist	23	−28	18
14	Fyllingsdalen	23	−53	6