Fana v Fyllingsdalen prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Fana 4–1 Fyllingsdalen FANA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT4–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fana win~~89%

~~The market said~~84%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.017

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.039

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fana win at 89%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fana was 89% before kick-off and our model makes it 89% now. 0–0 · 89–7–4
1′KICK-OFF Fana v Fyllingsdalen
2′A goal for Fana on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 96–3–1
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Fana 1–0 Fyllingsdalen
6′J. Lygre scores for Fana on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 95–3–1
7′Much as we predicted: Fana was 89% before kick-off and our model makes it 95% now. 1–0 · 95–3–1
9′Fyllingsdalen score on 8′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 88–8–5
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Fana 1–1 Fyllingsdalen
30′Goals are coming at about the 5.4 we expected. 1–1 · 82–12–6
30′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Fyllingsdalen
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Fana win: 89% at kick-off, 79% now
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Fana 2–1 Fyllingsdalen
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Fana win: 89% at kick-off, 93% now
40′Fana find the net on 39′. 2–1. 2–1 · 93–5–2
45′HALF-TIME Fana 2–1 Fyllingsdalen
46′SECOND HALF Fana 2–1 Fyllingsdalen
54′A goal for Fana on 53′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Fana 3–1 Fyllingsdalen
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Fana win: 89% at kick-off, 99% now
59′Fana score on 58′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Fana 4–1 Fyllingsdalen
60′Fana score on 58′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Fana 4–1 Fyllingsdalen
FTFana 4–1 Fyllingsdalen · Fana win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 4–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fana are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fana 89%, draw 6%, Fyllingsdalen 4%. Over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Fana v FyllingsdalenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fana win89%

Draw6%

Fyllingsdalen win4%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fana

Fyllingsdalen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Fana	23	+19	41
14	Fyllingsdalen	23	−53	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fana winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

89% The market84%

Us89%

~~Market~~84%

We make Fana an 89% chance to win. The market has them at 84%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 4.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fana v Fyllingsdalen~~4.44 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 41 v 6~~5 v 14

~~The market · Fana win~~84% · ours 89%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 84% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fana win	89%	84%	+5
Draw	6%	10%	−4
Fyllingsdalen win	4%	6%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	90%	84%	+6
Both teams to score	61%	61%	0
Over 1.5 goals	97%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	77%	72%	+5
Fana or draw	96%	94%	+2
Fana clean sheet	38%	–	–
Fyllingsdalen clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 6.8%

0123450 1 2.3 2.2 2 4.6 4.5 2.3 3 6.4 6.2 3.1 4 6.8 6.5 3.3 5 5.9 5.6 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Fana down, Fyllingsdalen across0–5 goals a side shown (70.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 3 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.4% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fana at home: 3.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fyllingsdalen away: 0.33 scored, 4.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.44 goals for Fana, 0.99 for Fyllingsdalen. Most likely score 4–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FYL 0–2 FAN · FAN 2–3 FYL · FYL 1–5 FAN · FAN 2–1 FYL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 5 Sept

FANA

WWWLWW5–3 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 5–2 · 3–0

FYLLINGSDALEN

LLLLLL0–7 · 1–2 · 0–7 · 1–2 · 2–6 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Os	23	+37	52
2	Djerv	23	+29	50
3	Askøy	23	+11	43
4	Vard	23	+20	41
5	Fana	23	+19	41
6	Brann II	23	+11	36
7	Austevoll	23	−6	36
8	Førde	23	−8	31
9	Sogndal II	23	+12	30
10	Stord	23	−17	24
11	Varegg	23	−9	23
12	Åsane II	23	−18	19
13	Gneist	23	−28	18
14	Fyllingsdalen	23	−53	6