Djerv v Fana prediction · 3. Division - Girone 3

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Djerv 5–0 Fana DJERV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Djerv win~~56%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.299

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.185

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Djerv win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Djerv 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–18–27
1′KICK-OFF Djerv v Fana
23′Djerv score on 22′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–15–12
23′We said Djerv at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–15–12
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Djerv 1–0 Fana
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Djerv win: 56% at kick-off, 73% now
29′23′: A. Fjeldstad on the scoresheet for Djerv, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–16–11
44′Djerv find the net on 44′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
44′We said Djerv at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
44′The goal count is tracking the 4.4 we expected. 2–0 · 91–7–2
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Djerv 2–0 Fana
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Djerv win: 56% at kick-off, 91% now
45′HALF-TIME Djerv 2–0 Fana
46′SECOND HALF Djerv 2–0 Fana
48′A goal for Djerv on 47′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
48′We said Djerv at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–0
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Djerv 3–0 Fana
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Djerv win: 56% at kick-off, 98% now
61′Djerv score on 61′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
61′We said Djerv at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Djerv 4–0 Fana
86′Djerv find the net on 86′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
86′5 goals already, more than the 4.4 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Djerv 5–0 Fana
FTFULL TIME Djerv 5–0 Fana
FTDjerv 5–0 Fana · Djerv win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Djerv are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Djerv 56%, draw 18%, Fana 27%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on Djerv v FanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Djerv win56%

Draw18%

Fana win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Djerv

Fana

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Djerv	24	+31	53
3	Fana	24	+22	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · djerv winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

56% The market65%

Us56%

~~Market~~65%

We make Djerv a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Djerv v Fana~~2.64 – 1.81

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 53 v 44~~2 v 3

~~The market · Djerv win~~65% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Djerv win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Djerv win	56%	65%	−9
Draw	18%	18%	0
Fana win	27%	17%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	81%	75%	+6
Both teams to score	76%	67%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	57%	+7
Djerv or draw	73%	83%	−10
Djerv clean sheet	17%	–	–
Fana clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.2%

0123450 2.4 2.0 1 3.4 5.6 5.0 3.0 2 4.2 7.2 6.4 3.9 3 3.6 6.3 5.5 3.4 4 2.4 4.1 3.7 2.2 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Djerv down, Fana across0–5 goals a side shown (93.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 3 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.8% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Djerv at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fana away: 3.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.64 goals for Djerv, 1.81 for Fana. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~FAN 4–3 DJE · DJE 4–2 FAN · FAN 1–0 DJE · DJE 2–3 FAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 12 Sept

DJERV

WWWWWW5–2 · 4–3 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

FANA

WWLWWW3–2 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 5–2 · 3–0 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Os	24	+41	55
2	Djerv	24	+31	53
3	Fana	24	+22	44
4	Vard	24	+21	44
5	Askøy	24	+10	43
6	Brann II	24	+11	37
7	Austevoll	24	−6	37
8	Førde	24	−10	31
9	Sogndal II	24	+8	30
10	Stord	24	−14	27
11	Varegg	24	−11	23
12	Åsane II	24	−16	22
13	Gneist	24	−31	18
14	Fyllingsdalen	24	−56	6