Djerv v Brann II prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31

Djerv 1–0 Brann II DJERV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Djerv win~~58%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.263

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.132

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Djerv win at 58%.
1′KICK-OFF Djerv v Brann II
2′Much as we predicted: Djerv was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–18–23
15′Much as we predicted: Djerv was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–20–24
16′Much as we predicted: Djerv was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–21–24
45′HALF-TIME Djerv 0–0 Brann II
46′SECOND HALF Djerv 0–0 Brann II
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Djerv 1–0 Brann II
90′🟥 RED CARD · 93' Djerv
FTFULL TIME Djerv 1–0 Brann II
FTDjerv 1–0 Brann II · Djerv win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Djerv win58%

Draw18%

Brann II win24%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Djerv

Brann II

9Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Djerv	22	+28	47
6	Brann II	22	+12	36

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · djerv winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 16:09 · locked at kick-off

58% The market70%

Us58%

~~Market~~70%

We make Djerv a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · djerv win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Djerv win	58%	70%	−12
Draw	18%	16%	+2
Brann II win	24%	14%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	79%	82%	−2
Both teams to score	74%	71%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	92%	91%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	61%	65%	−4
Djerv or draw	76%	86%	−10
Djerv clean sheet	20%	–	–
Brann II clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.7%

0123450 2.6 2.0 1 4.0 6.0 5.0 2.8 2 4.8 7.7 6.3 3.5 3 4.2 6.6 5.4 3.0 4 2.8 4.4 3.5 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Djerv down, Brann II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 979 3. Division - Girone 3 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.9% of games this season, across 160 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Djerv at home: 3.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Brann II away: 2.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.62 goals for Djerv, 1.65 for Brann II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BRA 2–4 DJE · DJE 2–0 BRA · BRA 2–5 DJE

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3

DJERV

WWWWWW2–1 · 3–2 · 5–2 · 4–3 · 2–1 · 5–0

BRANN II

DDWWWL2–2 · 4–4 · 2–1 · 7–0 · 4–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Os	23	+37	52
2	Djerv	22	+28	47
3	Askøy	23	+10	43
4	Vard	23	+20	41
5	Fana	23	+19	41
6	Brann II	22	+12	36
7	Austevoll	23	−6	36
8	Førde	23	−8	31
9	Sogndal II	23	+12	30
10	Stord	23	−16	24
11	Varegg	23	−9	23
12	Åsane II	23	−18	19
13	Gneist	23	−28	18
14	Fyllingsdalen	23	−53	6