Austevoll v Stord prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Austevoll 3–4 Stord AUSTEVOLL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Austevoll win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.839

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Austevoll win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Austevoll was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–18–28
1′KICK-OFF Austevoll v Stord
20′A goal for Austevoll on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–15–13
20′We published Austevoll at 54%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–15–13
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Austevoll 1–0 Stord
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Austevoll win: 54% at kick-off, 72% now
21′M. Dalseide scores for Austevoll on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–15–13
25′Stord score on 24′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 50–22–28
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Austevoll 1–1 Stord
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Austevoll win: 54% at kick-off, 50% now
26′25′: M. Pedersen on the scoresheet for Stord, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 50–23–28
30′Stord find the net on 30′. 1–2. 1–2 · 26–22–51
30′We said Austevoll at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–2 · 26–22–51
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Austevoll 1–2 Stord
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Austevoll win: 54% at kick-off, 26% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Stord win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Austevoll win 49%)
34′A goal for Stord on 34′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 11–14–75
34′We said Austevoll at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 1–3 · 11–14–75
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Austevoll 1–3 Stord
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Austevoll win: 54% at kick-off, 11% now
39′We said Austevoll at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–3 · 9–14–77
42′Austevoll score on 41′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 22–24–54
42′We said Austevoll at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 2–3 · 22–24–54
42′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.4 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 22–24–54
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Austevoll 2–3 Stord
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Austevoll win: 54% at kick-off, 22% now
45′HALF-TIME Austevoll 2–3 Stord
46′SECOND HALF Austevoll 2–3 Stord
48′We said Austevoll at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–3 · 19–24–56
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Austevoll win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
77′We said Austevoll at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–21–75
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Austevoll win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
81′Austevoll find the net on 80′. 3–3. 3–3 · 19–67–13
81′6 goals already, more than the 4.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 19–67–13
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Austevoll 3–3 Stord
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Austevoll win: 54% at kick-off, 19% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Stord win 79%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Austevoll win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Austevoll win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Austevoll 3–4 Stord
FTAustevoll 3–4 Stord · Austevoll win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Austevoll are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Austevoll 54%, draw 18%, Stord 28%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 77%.

The AI’s read on Austevoll v StordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Austevoll win54%

Draw18%

Stord win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Austevoll

Stord

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 3

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Austevoll	24	−6	37
10	Stord	24	−14	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · austevoll winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Austevoll a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.9, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Austevoll v Stord~~2.59 – 1.86

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 37 v 27~~7 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Austevoll win

Published at 53%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Austevoll win	54%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Stord win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	77%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Austevoll or draw	72%	–	–
Austevoll clean sheet	16%	–	–
Stord clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.2%

0123450 2.5 2.1 1 3.3 5.6 5.2 3.2 2 4.0 7.2 6.5 4.0 3 3.4 6.1 5.5 3.4 4 2.2 4.0 3.6 2.2 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Austevoll down, Stord across0–5 goals a side shown (93.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 3 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.8% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 8.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Austevoll at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Stord away: 2.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.59 goals for Austevoll, 1.86 for Stord. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~8.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STO 4–4 AUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3 this season · since 12 Sept

AUSTEVOLL

LLWWWD2–5 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 1–1

STORD

DLWLWW3–3 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 5–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Os	24	+41	55
2	Djerv	24	+31	53
3	Fana	24	+22	44
4	Vard	24	+21	44
5	Askøy	24	+10	43
6	Brann II	24	+11	37
7	Austevoll	24	−6	37
8	Førde	24	−10	31
9	Sogndal II	24	+8	30
10	Stord	24	−14	27
11	Varegg	24	−11	23
12	Åsane II	24	−16	22
13	Gneist	24	−31	18
14	Fyllingsdalen	24	−56	6