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Åsane II v Vard

Åsane II

1–5Full time

Vard

3. Division - Girone 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Åsane II 1–5 Vard VARD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vard win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.409

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vard win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vard 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 32–20–48
1′KICK-OFF Åsane II v Vard
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Åsane II 0–1 Vard
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Åsane II 0–2 Vard
22′19′ and it is 0–2: M. Eikje on the scoresheet for Vard. 0–2 · 5–9–86
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Vard win: 48% at kick-off, 86% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Åsane II 0–3 Vard
43′Vard ahead on 34′ through S. L. Haaland. 0–3. 0–3 · 1–2–97
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Vard win: 48% at kick-off, 97% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Åsane II 0–4 Vard
45′HALF-TIME Åsane II 0–4 Vard
46′SECOND HALF Åsane II 0–4 Vard
51′53′ and it is 0–4: A. Sundsoy on the scoresheet for Åsane II. 0–4 · 0–0–100
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Vard win: 48% at kick-off, 100% now
55′⚽ GOAL · 53' Åsane II 1–4 Vard · A. Sundsoy
72′We said Vard at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Åsane II 1–5 Vard
90′⚽ GOAL · 15' Åsane II 1–5 Vard · L. Eide
90′⚽ GOAL · 19' Åsane II 1–5 Vard · M. Eikje
90′⚽ GOAL · 34' Åsane II 1–5 Vard · S. L. Haaland
90′⚽ GOAL · 38' Åsane II 1–5 Vard · S. L. Haaland
90′⚽ GOAL · 53' Åsane II 1–5 Vard · A. Sundsoy
90′⚽ GOAL · 74' Åsane II 1–5 Vard · M. Eikje
FTFULL TIME Åsane II 1–5 Vard
FTÅsane II 1–5 Vard · Vard win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Åsane II win33%

Draw19%

Vard win48%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vard winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Vard a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–2.4, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Åsane II win	33%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Vard win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	76%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	61%	–	–
Åsane II or draw	52%	–	–
Åsane II clean sheet	10%	–	–
Vard clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.3%

0123450 3.6 4.0 3.1 1 3.0 6.3 7.3 5.6 3.3 2 2.7 6.0 6.8 5.3 3.1 3 3.8 4.4 3.4 2.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Åsane II down, Vard across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 973 3. Division - Girone 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.6% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Åsane II at home: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Vard away: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Åsane II, 2.35 for Vard. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~VAR 3–1 ASA

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 3

ÅSANE II

WDLLDL4–3 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–5

VARD

LDWWWW1–2 · 4–4 · 9–0 · 4–2 · 3–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Os	22	+35	49
2	Djerv	22	+28	47
3	Askøy	22	+13	43
4	Fana	22	+16	38
5	Vard	22	+16	38
6	Brann II	22	+12	36
7	Austevoll	22	−7	33
8	Førde	22	−7	31
9	Sogndal II	22	+10	27
10	Varegg	22	−8	23
11	Stord	22	−17	21
12	Åsane II	22	−14	19
13	Gneist	22	−26	18
14	Fyllingsdalen	22	−51	6