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Model 1.1

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Strindheim v Rosenborg II

Strindheim
5–1Full time
Rosenborg II

3. Division - Girone 2 · MON 12 OCT · Leangen Bolig Arena

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31
Strindheim 5–1 Rosenborg II STRINDHEIM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Strindheim win61%
The market said75%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.230
The market’s Brier score0.092

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 38 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Strindheim win at 61%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Strindheim 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–18–20
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Strindheim 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–18–20
  4. 8′7′ and it is 1–0: Strindheim have scored. 1–0 · 79–12–8
  5. 10′We said Strindheim at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–12–8
  6. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 61% now
  7. 14′Strindheim find the net on 13′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–3
  8. 14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Strindheim 2–0 Rosenborg II
  9. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 79% now
  10. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 61% now
  11. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  12. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  13. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 61% now
  14. 16′Strindheim find the net on 13′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  15. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 61% now
  16. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  17. 17′Strindheim find the net on 13′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  18. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 61% now
  19. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  20. 19′We said Strindheim at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  21. 21′Strindheim ahead on 14′ through A. Glosen. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  22. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Strindheim 2–1 Rosenborg II
  23. 32′A goal for Rosenborg II on 30′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 79–14–7
  24. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 79% now
  25. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  26. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 79% now
  27. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  28. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  29. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 79% now
  30. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  31. 35′⚽ GOAL · 8' Strindheim 2–1 Rosenborg II · I. Dahle-Johansen
  32. 35′⚽ GOAL · 14' Strindheim 2–1 Rosenborg II · A. Glosen
  33. 35′⚽ GOAL · 30' Strindheim 2–1 Rosenborg II · H. Troset
  34. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  35. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  36. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  37. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  38. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  39. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  40. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  41. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  42. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  43. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Strindheim win: 61% at kick-off, 92% now
  44. 45′HALF-TIME Strindheim 2–1 Rosenborg II
  45. 46′SECOND HALF Strindheim 2–1 Rosenborg II
  46. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Strindheim 3–1 Rosenborg II
  47. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Strindheim 4–1 Rosenborg II
  48. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Strindheim 5–1 Rosenborg II
  49. FTFULL TIME Strindheim 5–1 Rosenborg II
  50. FTStrindheim 5–1 Rosenborg II · Strindheim win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Strindheim win61%
Draw18%
Rosenborg II win21%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

VenueLeangen Bolig Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Strindheim

Rosenborg II

9Days since last match10
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Strindheim22+2846
7Rosenborg II22+1031

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · strindheim winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off
61% The market75%
Us61%
Market75%

We make Strindheim a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75%80% 9 OCT 06:1912 OCT 16:09
Our probability · strindheim win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Strindheim win61%75%−15
Draw18%15%+4
Rosenborg II win21%10%+11
Over 2.5 goals75%81%−6
Both teams to score69%69%+1
Over 1.5 goals90%90%0
Over 3.5 goals56%64%−8
Strindheim or draw79%90%−11
Strindheim clean sheet24%––
Rosenborg II clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%
0123450 2.2 2.7 2.0 1 4.8 7.0 4.9 2.4 2 6.1 8.4 6.0 2.9 3 5.1 7.0 5.0 2.4 4 3.3 4.5 3.2 5 2.4
under 2% 5% 12%+Strindheim down, Rosenborg II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsROS 1–1 STR

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2

STRINDHEIM

WWWDWW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 10–0 · 1–0

ROSENBORG II

LLLWWL1–2 · 1–2 · 2–5 · 4–0 · 7–1 · 1–4

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Volda23+3449
2Strindheim22+2846
3Melhus22+2438
4Byåsen23+737
5Herd23+432
6Molde II22−832
7Rosenborg II22+1031
8Nardo22+329
9Spjelkavik23−828
10NTNUI23−1328
11Ranheim II22−1326
12Kvik Trondheim23−2125
13Orkla23−2320
14Aalesund II21−2420

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.