Strindheim v Orkla prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Strindheim 7–0 Orkla STRINDHEIM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Strindheim win~~84%

~~The market said~~85%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.039

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.037

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Strindheim win at 84%.
1′Much as we predicted: Strindheim was 84% before kick-off and our model makes it 84% now. 0–0 · 84–9–7
1′KICK-OFF Strindheim v Orkla
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Strindheim 1–0 Orkla
36′Strindheim find the net on 34′. 1–0. 1–0 · 90–7–3
36′Much as we predicted: Strindheim was 84% before kick-off and our model makes it 90% now. 1–0 · 90–7–3
45′A goal for Strindheim on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
45′We published Strindheim at 84%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
45′We published Strindheim at 84%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Strindheim 2–0 Orkla
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Strindheim win: 84% at kick-off, 98% now
45′HALF-TIME Strindheim 3–0 Orkla
46′Strindheim score on 45′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
46′Goals are coming at about the 5.1 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' Strindheim 3–0 Orkla
46′SECOND HALF Strindheim 3–0 Orkla
54′Strindheim find the net on 54′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Strindheim 4–0 Orkla
71′A goal for Strindheim on 70′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Strindheim 5–0 Orkla
83′Strindheim score on 83′ to make it 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Strindheim 6–0 Orkla
84′6 goals already, more than the 5.1 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
85′6 goals already, more than the 5.1 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
86′84′: M. Christensen on the scoresheet for Strindheim, making it 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
93′Strindheim find the net on 90′. 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Strindheim 7–0 Orkla
94′That is 7, and we only asked for 5.1 across ninety minutes. 7–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Strindheim 7–0 Orkla
FTStrindheim 7–0 Orkla · Strindheim win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Strindheim are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Strindheim 84%, draw 9%, Orkla 7%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Strindheim v OrklaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Strindheim win84%

Draw9%

Orkla win7%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 24

VenueLeangen Bolig Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Strindheim

Orkla

5Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Strindheim	23	+32	49
14	Orkla	23	−23	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · strindheim winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:42 · locked at kick-off

84% The market85%

Us84%

~~Market~~85%

We make Strindheim an 84% chance to win. The market has them at 85%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 3.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Strindheim v Orkla~~3.95 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 49 v 20~~2 v 14

~~The market · Strindheim win~~85% · ours 84%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Strindheim win The market, margin stripped

Published at 82%, 84% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 85% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Strindheim win	84%	85%	−1
Draw	9%	10%	−1
Orkla win	7%	5%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	87%	81%	+6
Both teams to score	66%	56%	+10
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	74%	67%	+7
Strindheim or draw	93%	95%	−2
Strindheim clean sheet	32%	–	–
Orkla clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.0%

0123450 1 2.7 3.1 2 5.0 5.6 3.2 3 6.2 7.0 4.0 4 6.0 6.6 3.8 5 4.7 5.2 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Strindheim down, Orkla across0–5 goals a side shown (78.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 979 3. Division - Girone 2 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 77.5% of games this season, across 160 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.83 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Strindheim at home: 4.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Orkla away: 1.83 scored, 4.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.95 goals for Strindheim, 1.15 for Orkla. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.83

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ORK 2–1 STR · STR 1–0 ORK · ORK 3–6 STR · ORK 3–3 STR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 5 Sept

STRINDHEIM

WWDWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 10–0 · 1–0 · 5–1

ORKLA

WDDLLL3–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volda	23	+34	49
2	Strindheim	23	+32	49
3	Melhus	23	+23	38
4	Byåsen	23	+7	37
5	Molde II	23	−7	35
6	Herd	23	+4	32
7	Rosenborg II	23	+6	31
8	Nardo	22	+3	29
9	Spjelkavik	23	−8	28
10	NTNUI	23	−13	28
11	Ranheim II	23	−14	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	23	−21	25
13	Aalesund II	22	−23	23
14	Orkla	23	−23	20