Rosenborg II v NTNUI prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30

Rosenborg II 3–0 NTNUI ROSENBORG II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rosenborg II win~~65%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.179

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.260

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rosenborg II win at 65%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rosenborg II was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–18–17
1′KICK-OFF Rosenborg II v NTNUI
36′A goal for Rosenborg II on 36′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
36′We published Rosenborg II at 65%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–5
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Rosenborg II 1–0 NTNUI
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Rosenborg II win: 65% at kick-off, 82% now
45′HALF-TIME Rosenborg II 1–0 NTNUI
46′Rosenborg II score on 46′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
46′SECOND HALF Rosenborg II 1–0 NTNUI
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Rosenborg II 2–0 NTNUI
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Rosenborg II win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
47′We published Rosenborg II at 65%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
47′Goals are coming at about the 3.9 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
63′NTNUI find the net on 63′. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–14–3
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Rosenborg II 2–1 NTNUI
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Rosenborg II win: 65% at kick-off, 83% now
65′GOAL DISALLOWED · 65' NTNUI
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Rosenborg II win: 65% at kick-off, 97% now
80′Rosenborg II find the net on 80′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Rosenborg II 3–0 NTNUI
81′We published Rosenborg II at 65%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Rosenborg II 3–0 NTNUI
FTRosenborg II 3–0 NTNUI · Rosenborg II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rosenborg II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rosenborg II 65%, draw 17%, NTNUI 17%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Rosenborg II v NTNUIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Rosenborg II win65%

Draw17%

NTNUI win17%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rosenborg II

NTNUI

7Days since last match9

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Rosenborg II	23	+6	31
10	NTNUI	23	−13	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rosenborg ii winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

65% The market58%

Us65%

~~Market~~58%

We make Rosenborg II a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rosenborg II v NTNUI~~2.60 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 31 v 28~~8 v 10

~~The market · Rosenborg II win~~58% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rosenborg II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rosenborg II win	65%	58%	+7
Draw	17%	20%	−3
NTNUI win	17%	21%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	73%	78%	−5
Both teams to score	65%	73%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	89%	90%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	53%	61%	−8
Rosenborg II or draw	83%	79%	+4
Rosenborg II clean sheet	29%	–	–
NTNUI clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.4 2.8 1 5.6 7.0 4.4 2 7.1 8.7 5.5 2.3 3 6.1 7.4 4.6 4 4.0 4.8 3.0 5 2.1 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Rosenborg II down, NTNUI across0–5 goals a side shown (94.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 984 3. Division - Girone 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.2% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rosenborg II at home: 2.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). NTNUI away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.60 goals for Rosenborg II, 1.26 for NTNUI. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NTN 2–3 ROS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 5 Sept

ROSENBORG II

LLWWLL1–2 · 2–5 · 4–0 · 7–1 · 1–4 · 1–5

NTNUI

LDWLWW1–3 · 4–4 · 2–0 · 2–5 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Strindheim	24	+39	52
2	Volda	24	+38	52
3	Melhus	23	+23	38
4	Byåsen	24	+7	38
5	Molde II	24	−11	35
6	Nardo	23	+14	32
7	Herd	24	−7	32
8	Rosenborg II	23	+6	31
9	Spjelkavik	24	−8	29
10	NTNUI	23	−13	28
11	Ranheim II	23	−14	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	24	−21	26
13	Aalesund II	23	−23	24
14	Orkla	24	−30	20