Ranheim II v Aalesund II prediction · 3. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ranheim IIDrawAalesund II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ranheim II 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ranheim II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ranheim II 57%, draw 16%, Aalesund II 27%. Over 2.5 goals 92%, both teams to score 86%.

The AI’s read on Ranheim II v Aalesund IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ranheim II win57%

Draw16%

Aalesund II win27%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ranheim II

Aalesund II

7Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

Last match: 21 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Ranheim II	24	−17	26
13	Aalesund II	24	−23	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ranheim ii winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:22 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Ranheim II a 57% chance to win. The model expects 3.3–2.4, and 3–2 is the single most likely score at 5%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ranheim II v Aalesund II~~3.34 – 2.37

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 26 v 25~~11 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ranheim II win

Published at 58%, 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ranheim II win	57%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Aalesund II win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	92%	–	–
Both teams to score	86%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	97%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	81%	–	–
Ranheim II or draw	73%	–	–
Ranheim II clean sheet	10%	–	–
Aalesund II clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–2 at 5.5%

0123450 1 2.8 3.2 2.5 2 4.5 5.1 4.0 2.4 3 2.1 4.8 5.5 4.3 2.6 4 3.9 4.5 3.5 2.1 5 2.6 3.0 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Ranheim II down, Aalesund II across0–5 goals a side shown (83.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 991 3. Division - Girone 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.5% of games this season, across 172 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 5.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ranheim II at home: 2.67 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Aalesund II away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.34 goals for Ranheim II, 2.37 for Aalesund II. Most likely score 3–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AAL 2–5 RAN · RAN 2–0 AAL · AAL 4–3 RAN · RAN 3–2 AAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 13 Sept

RANHEIM II

LLLWLL1–4 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 5–2 · 2–3 · 0–3

AALESUND II

DLLWDD2–2 · 1–7 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Strindheim	25	+43	55
2	Volda	25	+41	55
3	Melhus	25	+26	42
4	Byåsen	24	+7	38
5	Molde II	24	−11	35
6	Rosenborg II	24	+9	34
7	Nardo	25	+13	33
8	Herd	25	−11	32
9	Spjelkavik	25	−11	29
10	NTNUI	25	−16	29
11	Ranheim II	24	−17	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	24	−21	26
13	Aalesund II	24	−23	25
14	Orkla	25	−29	23