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Orkla v Kvik Trondheim

Orkla

0–1Full time

Kvik Trondheim

3. Division - Girone 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Orkla 0–1 Kvik Trondheim ORKLA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orkla win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.865

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orkla win at 54%.
1′KICK-OFF Orkla v Kvik Trondheim
3′Little has changed for our model: Orkla 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–20–26
45′HALF-TIME Orkla 0–0 Kvik Trondheim
48′SECOND HALF Orkla 0–0 Kvik Trondheim
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Orkla win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
69′We said Orkla at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–48–20
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Orkla win: 54% at kick-off, 32% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Orkla win 32%)
90′Kvik Trondheim find the net on 90′. 0–0. 0–0 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Orkla win: 54% at kick-off, 0% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Orkla 0–1 Kvik Trondheim
FTFULL TIME Orkla 0–1 Kvik Trondheim
FTOrkla 0–1 Kvik Trondheim · Orkla win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Orkla win54%

Draw20%

Kvik Trondheim win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · orkla winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Orkla a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.7, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orkla win	54%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Kvik Trondheim win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Orkla or draw	73%	–	–
Orkla clean sheet	20%	–	–
Kvik Trondheim clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.0%

0123450 2.2 2.8 2.5 1 4.1 7.2 5.7 3.2 2 5.0 8.0 6.6 3.6 3 4.0 6.3 5.2 2.9 4 2.4 3.8 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orkla down, Kvik Trondheim across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 973 3. Division - Girone 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.6% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orkla at home: 2.17 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kvik Trondheim away: 1.17 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.39 goals for Orkla, 1.65 for Kvik Trondheim. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KVI 1–1 ORK

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2

ORKLA

DWDDLL3–3 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–4

KVIK TRONDHEIM

LLLLDL0–6 · 0–7 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volda	22	+35	49
2	Strindheim	22	+28	46
3	Melhus	22	+24	38
4	Byåsen	22	+9	37
5	Herd	23	+4	32
6	Molde II	22	−8	32
7	Rosenborg II	22	+10	31
8	Spjelkavik	23	−8	28
9	Nardo	21	+1	26
10	Ranheim II	22	−13	26
11	NTNUI	22	−14	25
12	Kvik Trondheim	22	−22	22
13	Orkla	22	−22	20
14	Aalesund II	21	−24	20