NTNUI v Melhus prediction · 3. Division - Girone 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

NTNUI 1–1 Melhus MELHUS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Melhus win~~53%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.937

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.892

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Melhus win at 53%.
1′KICK-OFF NTNUI v Melhus
2′Much as we predicted: Melhus was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 25–23–52
40′A goal for NTNUI on 39′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 56–26–18
40′We said Melhus at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 56–26–18
40′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 56–26–18
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' NTNUI 1–0 Melhus
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Melhus win: 53% at kick-off, 18% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' NTNUI win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Melhus win 44%)
45′HALF-TIME NTNUI 1–0 Melhus
46′SECOND HALF NTNUI 1–0 Melhus
49′We said Melhus at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Melhus win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
55′Melhus score on 55′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 21–41–37
55′We said Melhus at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 21–41–37
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' NTNUI 1–1 Melhus
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Melhus win: 53% at kick-off, 37% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was NTNUI win 62%)
61′We said Melhus at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 20–46–34
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Melhus win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
68′We said Melhus at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 17–54–29
74′We said Melhus at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 14–62–24
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Melhus win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Melhus win: 53% at kick-off, 12% now
86′We said Melhus at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 6–85–9
91′A red card for Melhus on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 3–92–5
91′🟥 RED CARD · 90+1' Melhus
92′We said Melhus at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Melhus win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME NTNUI 1–1 Melhus
FTNTNUI 1–1 Melhus · Melhus win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Melhus are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NTNUI 25%, draw 23%, Melhus 53%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on NTNUI v MelhusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

NTNUI win25%

Draw23%

Melhus win53%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NTNUI

Melhus

5Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Melhus	24	+26	41
10	NTNUI	24	−16	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · melhus winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

53% The market37%

Us53%

~~Market~~37%

We make Melhus a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NTNUI v Melhus~~1.22 – 1.88

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 28 v 41~~10 v 3

~~The market · Melhus win~~37% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Melhus win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NTNUI win	25%	40%	−15
Draw	23%	23%	0
Melhus win	53%	37%	+16
Over 2.5 goals	59%	71%	−12
Both teams to score	59%	71%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	81%	87%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	37%	52%	−15
NTNUI or draw	47%	63%	−16
NTNUI clean sheet	16%	–	–
Melhus clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 5.0 8.6 8.0 5.0 2.4 1 5.5 10.2 9.4 5.9 2.8 2 3.4 6.1 5.7 3.6 3 2.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NTNUI down, Melhus across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 2 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.6% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NTNUI at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Melhus away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for NTNUI, 1.88 for Melhus. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MEL 3–3 NTN · NTN 0–1 MEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 12 Sept

NTNUI

DWLWWL4–4 · 2–0 · 2–5 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

MELHUS

LLLWLW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Strindheim	24	+39	52
2	Volda	24	+38	52
3	Melhus	24	+26	41
4	Byåsen	24	+7	38
5	Molde II	24	−11	35
6	Rosenborg II	24	+9	34
7	Nardo	24	+14	33
8	Herd	24	−7	32
9	Spjelkavik	24	−8	29
10	NTNUI	24	−16	28
11	Ranheim II	24	−17	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	24	−21	26
13	Aalesund II	24	−23	25
14	Orkla	24	−30	20