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Nardo v Herd

Nardo
11–0Full time
Herd

3. Division - Girone 2 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Nardo 11–0 Herd NARDO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Nardo win57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.275

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Nardo win at 57%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Nardo 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–19–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Nardo v Herd
  4. 6′Nardo find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–13–11
  5. 6′We said Nardo at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–13–11
  6. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Nardo 1–0 Herd
  7. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Nardo win: 57% at kick-off, 76% now
  8. 9′A goal for Nardo on 9′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 89–7–4
  9. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Nardo 2–0 Herd
  10. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Nardo win: 57% at kick-off, 89% now
  11. 10′We said Nardo at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–0 · 89–7–4
  12. 13′Nardo score on 12′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 96–3–1
  13. 13′We said Nardo at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 3–0 · 96–3–1
  14. 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Nardo 3–0 Herd
  15. 17′13′: E. Tonne on the scoresheet for Nardo, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 96–3–1
  16. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Nardo win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
  17. 33′Nardo find the net on 33′. 4–0. 4–0 · 99–0–0
  18. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Nardo 4–0 Herd
  19. 37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Nardo 5–0 Herd
  20. 38′Y. Kahsay scores for Nardo on 36′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 38′We said Nardo at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 39′5 goals already, more than the 4.2 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  23. 42′Nardo score on 42′ to make it 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
  24. 42′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.2 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
  25. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Nardo 6–0 Herd
  26. 44′Nardo find the net on 44′. 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
  27. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Nardo 7–0 Herd
  28. 45′A goal for Nardo on 45′ — 8–0. 8–0 · 100–0–0
  29. 45′That is 8, and we only asked for 4.2 across ninety minutes. 8–0 · 100–0–0
  30. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Nardo 8–0 Herd
  31. 45′HALF-TIME Nardo 8–0 Herd
  32. 46′SECOND HALF Nardo 8–0 Herd
  33. 49′Nardo score on 49′ to make it 9–0. 9–0 · 100–0–0
  34. 49′9 goals already, more than the 4.2 we expected for the whole match. 9–0 · 100–0–0
  35. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Nardo 9–0 Herd
  36. 62′Nardo find the net on 62′. 10–0. 10–0 · 100–0–0
  37. 62′That is 10, and we only asked for 4.2 across ninety minutes. 10–0 · 100–0–0
  38. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Nardo 10–0 Herd
  39. 81′A goal for Nardo on 80′ — 11–0. 11–0 · 100–0–0
  40. 81′11 goals already, more than the 4.2 we expected for the whole match. 11–0 · 100–0–0
  41. 81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Nardo 11–0 Herd
  42. FTFULL TIME Nardo 11–0 Herd
  43. FTNardo 11–0 Herd · Nardo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nardo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nardo 57%, draw 19%, Herd 24%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Nardo v HerdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nardo win57%
Draw19%
Herd win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nardo

Herd

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

Last match: 9 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Herd23+432
8Nardo22+329

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nardo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
57% The market–
Us57%

We make Nardo a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Nardo v Herd2.54 – 1.61
Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 5 SeptW5 D0 L1 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 29 v 328 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Nardo win57%––
Draw19%––
Herd win24%––
Over 2.5 goals78%––
Both teams to score73%––
Over 1.5 goals91%––
Over 3.5 goals59%––
Nardo or draw76%––
Nardo clean sheet21%––
Herd clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%
0123450 2.6 2.2 1 4.1 6.6 5.2 2.8 2 5.1 7.9 6.3 3.4 3 4.3 6.6 5.3 2.9 4 2.7 4.2 3.4 5 2.2
under 2% 5% 12%+Nardo down, Herd across0–5 goals a side shown (94.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting5.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsHER 4–1 NAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 5 Sept

NARDO

WWWWLW4–2 · 5–2 · 4–1 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 3–1

HERD

LDLDLW1–4 · 2–2 · 1–6 · 0–0 · 2–6 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Volda23+3449
2Strindheim23+3249
3Melhus23+2338
4Byåsen23+737
5Molde II23−735
6Herd23+432
7Rosenborg II23+631
8Nardo22+329
9Spjelkavik23−828
10NTNUI23−1328
11Ranheim II23−1426
12Kvik Trondheim23−2125
13Aalesund II22−2323
14Orkla23−2320

The competition's standings before kick-off.