Molde II v Volda prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Molde II 0–4 Volda VOLDA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Volda win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.287

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Volda win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Volda was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 26–17–56
1′KICK-OFF Molde II v Volda
25′A red card for Molde II on 25′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 27–21–53
25′🟥 RED CARD · 25' Molde II
26′Volda score on 26′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–15–73
26′We published Volda at 57%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 12–15–73
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Molde II 0–1 Volda
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Volda win: 57% at kick-off, 73% now
36′Volda find the net on 36′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–7–89
36′We published Volda at 57%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–2 · 4–7–89
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Molde II 0–2 Volda
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Volda win: 57% at kick-off, 89% now
37′Goals are coming at about the 5.0 we expected. 0–2 · 4–7–89
41′We published Volda at 57%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–7–90
45′HALF-TIME Molde II 0–2 Volda
46′SECOND HALF Molde II 0–2 Volda
50′A goal for Volda on 50′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 1–2–98
50′We published Volda at 57%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–3 · 1–2–98
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Molde II 0–3 Volda
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Volda win: 57% at kick-off, 98% now
52′A goal for Volda on 50′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
52′A red card for Molde II on 25′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–3 · 0–2–98
53′We published Volda at 57%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–3 · 0–2–98
53′Goals are coming at about the 5.0 we expected. 0–3 · 0–2–98
73′We published Volda at 57%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
91′Volda score on 90′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Molde II 0–4 Volda
FTFULL TIME Molde II 0–4 Volda
FTMolde II 0–4 Volda · Volda win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Volda are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Molde II 26%, draw 17%, Volda 57%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 81%.

The AI’s read on Molde II v VoldaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Molde II win26%

Draw17%

Volda win57%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Molde II

Volda

5Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · volda winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:42 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Volda a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–3.0, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Molde II v Volda~~2.03 – 2.95

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 35 v 49~~5 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Volda win

Published at 58%, 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Molde II win	26%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Volda win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	87%	–	–
Both teams to score	81%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	72%	–	–
Molde II or draw	43%	–	–
Molde II clean sheet	6%	–	–
Volda clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 6.0%

0123450 2.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 1 4.3 6.0 5.8 4.2 2.62 4.2 6.0 5.7 4.2 2.53 2.9 4.1 3.9 2.8 4 2.1 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Molde II down, Volda across0–5 goals a side shown (89.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 979 3. Division - Girone 2 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 77.5% of games this season, across 160 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.38 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Molde II at home: 4.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Volda away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Molde II, 2.95 for Volda. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.38

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VOL 5–0 MOL · VOL 3–2 MOL · MOL 3–1 VOL · VOL 3–2 MOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 6 Sept

MOLDE II

WDWLWW3–2 · 4–4 · 1–0 · 0–10 · 6–2 · 3–2

VOLDA

WWDWWL2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volda	23	+34	49
2	Strindheim	23	+32	49
3	Melhus	23	+23	38
4	Byåsen	23	+7	37
5	Molde II	23	−7	35
6	Herd	23	+4	32
7	Rosenborg II	23	+6	31
8	Nardo	22	+3	29
9	Spjelkavik	23	−8	28
10	NTNUI	23	−13	28
11	Ranheim II	23	−14	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	23	−21	25
13	Aalesund II	22	−23	23
14	Orkla	23	−23	20