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Melhus v Ranheim II

Melhus
3–0Full time
Ranheim II

3. Division - Girone 2 · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30
Melhus 3–0 Ranheim II MELHUS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Melhus win77%
The market said26%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.081
The market’s Brier score0.872

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Melhus win at 77%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Melhus v Ranheim II
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Melhus 77% before kick-off, 76% now. 0–0 · 76–12–11
  4. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Melhus win: 77% at kick-off, 67% now
  5. 40′We said Melhus at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 65%. 0–0 · 65–20–14
  6. 43′We said Melhus at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–22–14
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Melhus 0–0 Ranheim II
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Melhus 0–0 Ranheim II
  9. 54′We said Melhus at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 58%. 0–0 · 58–27–15
  10. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 5.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 58–28–15
  11. 56′A goal for Melhus on 56′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–3
  12. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Melhus win: 77% at kick-off, 57% now
  13. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Melhus 1–0 Ranheim II
  14. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Melhus win: 77% at kick-off, 85% now
  15. 68′Melhus score on 68′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  16. 68′We said Melhus at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  17. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Melhus 2–0 Ranheim II
  18. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Melhus win: 77% at kick-off, 98% now
  19. 83′We said Melhus at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  20. 90′Melhus are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Melhus
  22. 95′Melhus find the net on 90′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  23. 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Melhus 3–0 Ranheim II
  24. FTFULL TIME Melhus 3–0 Ranheim II
  25. FTMelhus 3–0 Ranheim II · Melhus win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Melhus are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Melhus 77%, draw 12%, Ranheim II 11%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Melhus v Ranheim IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Melhus win77%
Draw12%
Ranheim II win11%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Melhus

Ranheim II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Melhus23+2338
11Ranheim II23−1426

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · melhus winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
77% The market26%
Us77%
Market26%

We make Melhus a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 51 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Melhus v Ranheim II3.61 – 1.41
Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 5 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 38 v 263 v 11
The market · Melhus win26% · ours 77%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%30%40%50%60%70%80% 13 OCT 05:4219 OCT 17:40
Our probability · Melhus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Melhus win77%26%+51
Draw12%21%−9
Ranheim II win11%53%−42
Over 2.5 goals87%79%+8
Both teams to score73%77%−4
Over 1.5 goals96%92%+4
Over 3.5 goals73%63%+10
Melhus or draw89%47%+42
Melhus clean sheet25%––
Ranheim II clean sheet3%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.0%
0123450 1 2.6 3.6 2.5 2 4.4 6.1 4.3 2.0 3 5.1 7.0 4.9 2.4 4 4.6 6.2 4.3 2.1 5 3.3 4.5 3.1
under 2% 5% 12%+Melhus down, Ranheim II across0–5 goals a side shown (83.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting5.25
Over 2.54 of 4
Both scored4 of 4
Last meetingsRAN 1–4 MEL · RAN 3–4 MEL · MEL 2–1 RAN · RAN 4–2 MEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 5 Sept

MELHUS

WLLLWL4–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 0–1

RANHEIM II

WLLLWL7–0 · 1–4 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 5–2 · 2–3

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Strindheim24+3952
2Volda24+3852
3Melhus23+2338
4Byåsen24+738
5Molde II24−1135
6Nardo23+1432
7Herd24−732
8Rosenborg II23+631
9Spjelkavik24−829
10NTNUI23−1328
11Ranheim II23−1426
12Kvik Trondheim24−2126
13Aalesund II23−2324
14Orkla24−3020

The competition's standings before kick-off.