Melhus v Aalesund II prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31

Melhus 0–1 Aalesund II MELHUS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Melhus win~~79%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.463

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.116

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Melhus win at 79%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Melhus 79% before kick-off, 80% now. 0–0 · 80–12–9
1′KICK-OFF Melhus v Aalesund II
2′Little has changed for our model: Melhus 79% before kick-off, 79% now. 0–0 · 79–12–9
45′HALF-TIME Melhus 0–0 Aalesund II
46′SECOND HALF Melhus 0–0 Aalesund II
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Melhus 0–1 Aalesund II
FTFULL TIME Melhus 0–1 Aalesund II
FTMelhus 0–1 Aalesund II · Melhus win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Melhus win79%

Draw12%

Aalesund II win9%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Melhus

Aalesund II

10Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Melhus	22	+24	38
14	Aalesund II	21	−24	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · melhus winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

79% The market65%

Us79%

~~Market~~65%

We make Melhus a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · melhus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Melhus win	79%	65%	+14
Draw	12%	17%	−5
Aalesund II win	9%	18%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	82%	86%	−4
Both teams to score	65%	78%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	94%	94%	0
Over 3.5 goals	66%	71%	−6
Melhus or draw	91%	82%	+9
Melhus clean sheet	33%	–	–
Aalesund II clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.6%

0123450 1 3.8 4.4 2.5 2 6.3 6.9 4.0 3 6.9 7.6 4.3 4 5.8 6.4 3.6 5 4.0 4.4 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Melhus down, Aalesund II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 976 3. Division - Girone 2 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 77.7% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Melhus at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Aalesund II away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.40 goals for Melhus, 1.13 for Aalesund II. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AAL 2–3 MEL · AAL 1–3 MEL · MEL 5–0 AAL

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2

MELHUS

LWLLLW0–1 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 4–1

AALESUND II

LLWDLL2–3 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–7 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volda	23	+34	49
2	Strindheim	22	+28	46
3	Melhus	22	+24	38
4	Byåsen	23	+7	37
5	Herd	23	+4	32
6	Molde II	22	−8	32
7	Rosenborg II	22	+10	31
8	Nardo	22	+3	29
9	Spjelkavik	23	−8	28
10	NTNUI	23	−13	28
11	Ranheim II	22	−13	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	23	−21	25
13	Orkla	23	−23	20
14	Aalesund II	21	−24	20