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Byåsen v Nardo

Byåsen

1–3Full time

Nardo

3. Division - Girone 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Byåsen 1–3 Nardo BYÅSEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Byåsen win~~52%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.835

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.877

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Byåsen win at 52%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Byåsen 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–21–27
3′KICK-OFF Byåsen v Nardo
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Byåsen 1–0 Nardo
43′⚽ GOAL · 39' Byåsen 1–0 Nardo · B. Aune
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Byåsen 1–1 Nardo
45′Nardo ahead on 43′ through Y. Kahsay. 1–1. 1–1 · 43–31–26
45′HALF-TIME Byåsen 1–1 Nardo
49′SECOND HALF Byåsen 1–1 Nardo
56′K. Halvorsen scores for Nardo on 54′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 13–25–62
56′⚽ GOAL · 54' Byåsen 1–2 Nardo · K. Halvorsen
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Byåsen win: 52% at kick-off, 13% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Nardo win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Byåsen win 13%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Byåsen 1–3 Nardo
FTFULL TIME Byåsen 1–3 Nardo
FTByåsen 1–3 Nardo · Byåsen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Byåsen win52%

Draw21%

Nardo win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · byåsen winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

52% The market53%

Us52%

~~Market~~53%

We make Byåsen a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · byåsen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Byåsen win	52%	53%	−1
Draw	21%	21%	−1
Nardo win	28%	26%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	72%	74%	−1
Both teams to score	70%	73%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	89%	89%	0
Over 3.5 goals	52%	56%	−3
Byåsen or draw	72%	74%	−2
Byåsen clean sheet	21%	–	–
Nardo clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.8 3.4 2.9 1 4.8 8.2 6.1 3.3 2 5.5 8.5 6.6 3.5 3 4.1 6.2 4.8 2.6 4 2.3 3.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Byåsen down, Nardo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 973 3. Division - Girone 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.6% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Byåsen at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nardo away: 2.67 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.22 goals for Byåsen, 1.58 for Nardo. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NAR 2–4 BYA · NAR 3–0 BYA · BYA 2–1 NAR

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2

BYÅSEN

WLWWWW2–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 6–1 · 3–0 · 2–1

NARDO

LWWWWL1–3 · 4–2 · 5–2 · 4–1 · 5–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volda	22	+35	49
2	Strindheim	22	+28	46
3	Melhus	22	+24	38
4	Byåsen	22	+9	37
5	Herd	23	+4	32
6	Molde II	22	−8	32
7	Rosenborg II	22	+10	31
8	Spjelkavik	23	−8	28
9	Nardo	21	+1	26
10	Ranheim II	22	−13	26
11	NTNUI	22	−14	25
12	Kvik Trondheim	22	−22	22
13	Orkla	22	−22	20
14	Aalesund II	21	−24	20