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Aalesund II v Byåsen

Aalesund II
3–3Full time
Byåsen

3. Division - Girone 2 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43
Aalesund II 3–3 Byåsen BYÅSEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Byåsen win43%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.948
The market’s Brier score0.972

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Byåsen win at 43%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Byåsen was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 37–21–43
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Aalesund II v Byåsen
  4. 27′Aalesund II find the net on 26′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–21–19
  5. 27′We said Byåsen at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 60–21–19
  6. 27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Aalesund II 1–0 Byåsen
  7. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Byåsen win: 43% at kick-off, 19% now
  8. 27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Aalesund II win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Byåsen win 19%)
  9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 4.0 we expected. 1–0 · 60–21–19
  10. 45′We said Byåsen at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–22–14
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Aalesund II 1–0 Byåsen
  12. 47′SECOND HALF Aalesund II 1–0 Byåsen
  13. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Byåsen win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
  14. 51′A goal for Byåsen on 51′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–34–35
  15. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Aalesund II 1–1 Byåsen
  16. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Byåsen win: 43% at kick-off, 35% now
  17. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Aalesund II win 29%)
  18. 60′Byåsen score on 60′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–21–72
  19. 60′We published Byåsen at 43%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–2 · 8–21–72
  20. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Aalesund II 1–2 Byåsen
  21. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Byåsen win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
  22. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Byåsen win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
  23. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Byåsen win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
  24. 67′We published Byåsen at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 6–20–75
  25. 75′We published Byåsen at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  26. 76′Aalesund II find the net on 75′. 2–2. 2–2 · 19–59–21
  27. 76′We said Byåsen at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 2–2 · 19–59–21
  28. 76′4 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 19–59–21
  29. 76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Aalesund II 2–2 Byåsen
  30. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Byåsen win: 43% at kick-off, 21% now
  31. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Byåsen win 21%)
  32. 81′A goal for Byåsen on 81′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 1–13–86
  33. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Aalesund II 2–3 Byåsen
  34. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Byåsen win: 43% at kick-off, 86% now
  35. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Byåsen win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
  36. 82′We published Byåsen at 43%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–3 · 1–12–87
  37. 82′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 1–12–87
  38. 84′We published Byåsen at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–3 · 1–10–90
  39. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Byåsen win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  40. 91′We published Byåsen at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
  41. 95′Aalesund II score on 90′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 2–96–2
  42. 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Aalesund II 3–3 Byåsen
  43. 95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+5' Byåsen win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
  44. 95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Byåsen win 2%)
  45. 96′We said Byåsen at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 3–3 · 2–96–2
  46. 96′6 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 2–96–2
  47. 96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+6' Byåsen win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
  48. FTFULL TIME Aalesund II 3–3 Byåsen
  49. FTAalesund II 3–3 Byåsen · Byåsen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Byåsen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aalesund II 37%, draw 21%, Byåsen 43%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Aalesund II v ByåsenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Aalesund II win37%
Draw21%
Byåsen win43%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aalesund II

Byåsen

6Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Byåsen23+737
13Aalesund II22−2323

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · byåsen winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:42 · locked at kick-off
43% The market36%
Us43%
Market36%

We make Byåsen a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Aalesund II v Byåsen1.90 – 2.07
Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 5 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 23 v 3713 v 4
The market · Byåsen win36% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60%70% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 13:48
Our probability · Byåsen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Aalesund II win37%44%−7
Draw21%20%+1
Byåsen win43%36%+7
Over 2.5 goals75%79%−4
Both teams to score73%76%−3
Over 1.5 goals90%90%0
Over 3.5 goals56%60%−4
Aalesund II or draw57%64%−7
Aalesund II clean sheet13%––
Byåsen clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.5%
0123450 2.2 4.0 4.1 2.8 1 3.7 7.5 7.5 5.1 2.7 2 3.5 6.9 7.0 4.8 2.5 3 2.2 4.4 4.4 3.0 4 2.1 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Aalesund II down, Byåsen across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsBYA 2–1 AAL · AAL 2–0 BYA · BYA 3–0 AAL · BYA 0–2 AAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 2 this season · since 5 Sept

AALESUND II

LWDLLW2–3 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–7 · 1–3 · 1–0

BYÅSEN

LWWWWL1–2 · 4–1 · 6–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Strindheim24+3952
2Volda24+3852
3Melhus23+2338
4Byåsen23+737
5Molde II24−1135
6Nardo23+1432
7Herd24−732
8Rosenborg II23+631
9Spjelkavik24−829
10NTNUI23−1328
11Ranheim II23−1426
12Kvik Trondheim24−2126
13Aalesund II22−2323
14Orkla24−3020

The competition's standings before kick-off.