Vålerenga II v KFUM II prediction · 3. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Vålerenga IIDrawKFUM II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Vålerenga II 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vålerenga II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vålerenga II 55%, draw 17%, KFUM II 28%. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 80%.

The AI’s read on Vålerenga II v KFUM IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Vålerenga II win55%

Draw17%

KFUM II win28%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueIntility Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vålerenga II

KFUM II

9Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

Last match: 19 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Vålerenga II	24	−9	40
10	KFUM II	24	−13	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vålerenga ii winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Vålerenga II a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–2.0, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vålerenga II v KFUM II~~2.79 – 1.98

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 40 v 28~~5 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vålerenga II win	55%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
KFUM II win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	85%	–	–
Both teams to score	80%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	69%	–	–
Vålerenga II or draw	72%	–	–
Vålerenga II clean sheet	14%	–	–
KFUM II clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.4%

0123450 1 2.7 4.6 4.6 3.1 2 3.4 6.4 6.3 4.1 2.1 3 3.1 5.9 5.7 3.8 4 2.2 4.1 4.0 2.6 5 2.3 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Vålerenga II down, KFUM II across0–5 goals a side shown (91.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 993 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.2% of games this season, across 174 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vålerenga II at home: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). KFUM II away: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.79 goals for Vålerenga II, 1.98 for KFUM II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KFU 2–1 VAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 12 Sept

VÅLERENGA II

WLWWWL2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 0–4

KFUM II

LWDLDW2–5 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 6–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	25	+53	67
2	Heming	25	+26	50
3	Gamle Oslo	25	+27	45
4	IF Ready	25	+15	42
5	Vålerenga II	24	−9	40
6	Bærum	25	+20	39
7	Union Carl Berner	25	+4	38
8	Frigg	25	−9	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	25	−24	29
10	KFUM II	24	−13	28
11	SF Grei	25	−25	28
12	Ullern	25	−13	26
13	Nordstrand	25	−24	20
14	Konnerud	25	−28	17