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Vålerenga II v Frigg

Vålerenga II

4–1Full time

Frigg

3. Division - Girone 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Intility Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Vålerenga II 4–1 Frigg FRIGG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Frigg win~~46%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.646

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.499

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Frigg win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Frigg 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 36–18–46
1′KICK-OFF Vålerenga II v Frigg
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Vålerenga II 1–0 Frigg
22′Vålerenga II ahead on 12′ through M. El Fezani. 1–0. 1–0 · 56–19–25
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Frigg win: 46% at kick-off, 25% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Vålerenga II win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Frigg win 25%)
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Vålerenga II 2–0 Frigg
43′J. Renshuslokken scores for Vålerenga II on 23′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 81–12–7
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Frigg win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
45′HALF-TIME Vålerenga II 2–0 Frigg
47′We said Frigg at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 2–0 · 82–12–6
47′SECOND HALF Vålerenga II 2–0 Frigg
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Frigg win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Vålerenga II 3–0 Frigg
69′56′ and it is 3–0: M. El Fezani on the scoresheet for Vålerenga II. 3–0 · 98–1–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Vålerenga II 4–0 Frigg
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Vålerenga II 4–1 Frigg
87′⚽ GOAL · 12' Vålerenga II 4–1 Frigg · M. El Fezani
87′⚽ GOAL · 23' Vålerenga II 4–1 Frigg · J. Renshuslokken
87′⚽ GOAL · 56' Vålerenga II 4–1 Frigg · M. El Fezani
87′⚽ GOAL · 83' Vålerenga II 4–1 Frigg · L. Thorvaldsen
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Vålerenga II 4–1 Frigg
90′E. Kanebog scores for Frigg on 86′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Vålerenga II 4–1 Frigg
FTVålerenga II 4–1 Frigg · Frigg win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vålerenga II win36%

Draw17%

Frigg win46%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Intility Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · frigg winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

46% The market36%

Us46%

~~Market~~36%

We make Frigg a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–2.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · frigg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vålerenga II win	36%	43%	−6
Draw	17%	22%	−4
Frigg win	46%	36%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	88%	81%	+7
Both teams to score	84%	79%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	96%	90%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	74%	64%	+11
Vålerenga II or draw	54%	64%	−10
Vålerenga II clean sheet	7%	–	–
Frigg clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.2%

0123450 2.3 2.0 1 3.9 5.3 4.7 3.2 2 4.7 6.2 5.5 3.7 2.03 3.8 4.9 4.4 3.0 4 2.3 3.0 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vålerenga II down, Frigg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 972 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.7% of games this season, across 153 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vålerenga II at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Frigg away: 2.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.42 goals for Vålerenga II, 2.70 for Frigg. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FRI 3–3 VAL

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1

VÅLERENGA II

LWWLWW2–5 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0

FRIGG

DWLWLD2–2 · 5–2 · 1–5 · 2–0 · 2–6 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	21	+45	55
2	Heming	22	+22	43
3	Gamle Oslo	22	+27	41
4	Vålerenga II	22	−8	37
5	IF Ready	22	+12	36
6	Bærum	22	+21	35
7	Union Carl Berner	22	+8	35
8	Frigg	21	+5	33
9	KFUM II	22	−19	24
10	Ullern	22	−16	23
11	Lokomotiv Oslo	22	−25	23
12	Nordstrand	22	−15	20
13	SF Grei	22	−32	19
14	Konnerud	22	−25	17