Union Carl Berner v Vålerenga II prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Union Carl Berner 4–0 Vålerenga II UNION CARL BERNER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Carl Berner win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.400

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Carl Berner win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Union Carl Berner was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–20–31
1′KICK-OFF Union Carl Berner v Vålerenga II
9′Much as we predicted: Union Carl Berner was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–21–31
25′A goal for Union Carl Berner on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–18–13
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Union Carl Berner 1–0 Vålerenga II
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Union Carl Berner win: 49% at kick-off, 70% now
26′We published Union Carl Berner at 49%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–18–13
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.9 we expected. 1–0 · 70–18–12
39′Union Carl Berner score on 38′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
39′We published Union Carl Berner at 49%. Our model now makes it 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Union Carl Berner 2–0 Vålerenga II
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Union Carl Berner win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
40′We published Union Carl Berner at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
44′Union Carl Berner find the net on 44′. 3–0. 3–0 · 97–2–1
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Union Carl Berner 3–0 Vålerenga II
45′We published Union Carl Berner at 49%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–1
45′HALF-TIME Union Carl Berner 3–0 Vålerenga II
46′SECOND HALF Union Carl Berner 3–0 Vålerenga II
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Union Carl Berner win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
70′We published Union Carl Berner at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′A goal for Union Carl Berner on 88′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
88′4 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Union Carl Berner 4–0 Vålerenga II
FTFULL TIME Union Carl Berner 4–0 Vålerenga II
FTUnion Carl Berner 4–0 Vålerenga II · Union Carl Berner win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Carl Berner are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union Carl Berner 49%, draw 20%, Vålerenga II 31%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Union Carl Berner v Vålerenga IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Union Carl Berner win49%

Draw20%

Vålerenga II win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union Carl Berner

Vålerenga II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Vålerenga II	23	−5	40
7	Union Carl Berner	23	+4	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union carl berner winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Union Carl Berner a 49% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.7, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union Carl Berner v Vålerenga II~~2.16 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 35 v 40~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Carl Berner win	49%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Vålerenga II win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Union Carl Berner or draw	69%	–	–
Union Carl Berner clean sheet	19%	–	–
Vålerenga II clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.1 4.0 3.1 1 5.0 7.5 6.5 3.7 2 5.0 8.1 6.8 3.9 3 3.6 5.8 4.9 2.8 4 3.2 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Carl Berner down, Vålerenga II across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.4% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Carl Berner at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Vålerenga II away: 2.50 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Union Carl Berner, 1.70 for Vålerenga II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~VAL 2–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 5 Sept

UNION CARL BERNER

DWWDWL1–1 · 2–1 · 6–2 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–4

VÅLERENGA II

WWLWWW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	23	+48	61
2	Gamle Oslo	23	+28	44
3	Heming	23	+22	44
4	Vålerenga II	23	−5	40
5	IF Ready	23	+16	39
6	Bærum	23	+19	35
7	Union Carl Berner	23	+4	35
8	Frigg	23	+1	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	23	−24	26
10	KFUM II	23	−19	25
11	Ullern	23	−18	23
12	SF Grei	23	−30	22
13	Nordstrand	23	−16	20
14	Konnerud	23	−26	17