Home › Football › 3. Division - Girone 1 › Ullern v SF Grei

Ullern v SF Grei

Ullern

0–2Full time

SF Grei

3. Division - Girone 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Ullern 0–2 SF Grei ULLERN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ullern win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.092

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ullern win at 65%.
1′KICK-OFF Ullern v SF Grei
2′Much as we predicted: Ullern was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–15–19
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Ullern 0–1 SF Grei
43′27′ and it is 0–1: A. S. Qzaibri on the scoresheet for SF Grei. 0–1 · 31–24–45
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Ullern win: 65% at kick-off, 31% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' SF Grei win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Ullern win 31%)
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Ullern 0–2 SF Grei
45′HALF-TIME Ullern 0–2 SF Grei
47′SECOND HALF Ullern 0–2 SF Grei
48′SF Grei ahead on 44′ through A. S. Qzaibri. 0–2. 0–2 · 12–16–72
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Ullern win: 65% at kick-off, 12% now
69′We said Ullern at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–10–87
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Ullern win: 65% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Ullern 0–2 SF Grei
FTUllern 0–2 SF Grei · Ullern win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ullern win65%

Draw15%

SF Grei win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ullern winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Ullern a 65% chance to win. The model expects 3.3–1.9, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ullern win	65%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
SF Grei win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	89%	–	–
Both teams to score	81%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	76%	–	–
Ullern or draw	80%	–	–
Ullern clean sheet	16%	–	–
SF Grei clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.1%

0123450 1 2.0 3.4 3.3 2.1 2 3.1 5.6 5.2 3.3 3 3.3 6.1 5.6 3.6 4 2.8 5.0 4.7 2.9 5 3.4 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Ullern down, SF Grei across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 972 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.7% of games this season, across 153 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ullern at home: 2.17 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). SF Grei away: 1.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.34 goals for Ullern, 1.89 for SF Grei. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SFG 3–2 ULL

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1

ULLERN

WLLWLW3–2 · 2–6 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 3–1

SF GREI

WLLLWW5–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 4–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	21	+45	55
2	Heming	22	+22	43
3	Gamle Oslo	22	+27	41
4	Vålerenga II	22	−8	37
5	IF Ready	22	+12	36
6	Bærum	22	+21	35
7	Union Carl Berner	22	+8	35
8	Frigg	21	+5	33
9	KFUM II	22	−19	24
10	Ullern	22	−16	23
11	Lokomotiv Oslo	22	−25	23
12	Nordstrand	22	−15	20
13	SF Grei	22	−32	19
14	Konnerud	22	−25	17