Ullern v Nordstrand prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Ullern 6–0 Nordstrand ULLERN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ullern win~~51%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.371

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.391

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ullern win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ullern was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–20–29
1′KICK-OFF Ullern v Nordstrand
33′A goal for Ullern on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–11
33′We published Ullern at 51%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–11
33′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–11
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Ullern 1–0 Nordstrand
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Ullern win: 51% at kick-off, 72% now
34′N. Knezevic scores for Ullern on 33′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
45′Ullern score on 44′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′We published Ullern at 51%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Ullern 2–0 Nordstrand
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ullern win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
45′HALF-TIME Ullern 2–0 Nordstrand
46′SECOND HALF Ullern 2–0 Nordstrand
52′45′: B. Evensen on the scoresheet for Ullern, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
61′We published Ullern at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
69′Ullern find the net on 69′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′We published Ullern at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Ullern 3–0 Nordstrand
71′A goal for Ullern on 71′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
71′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Ullern 4–0 Nordstrand
92′Ullern score on 90′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
92′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Ullern 5–0 Nordstrand
95′Ullern find the net on 90′. 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
95′6 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Ullern 6–0 Nordstrand
FTFULL TIME Ullern 6–0 Nordstrand
FTUllern 6–0 Nordstrand · Ullern win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ullern are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ullern 51%, draw 20%, Nordstrand 29%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Ullern v NordstrandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ullern win51%

Draw20%

Nordstrand win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ullern

Nordstrand

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Ullern	24	−19	23
13	Nordstrand	24	−18	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ullern winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:09 · locked at kick-off

51% The market49%

Us51%

~~Market~~49%

We make Ullern a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ullern v Nordstrand~~2.15 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 23 v 20~~12 v 13

~~The market · Ullern win~~49% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ullern win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ullern win	51%	49%	+2
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Nordstrand win	29%	29%	0
Over 2.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Both teams to score	69%	72%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	88%	88%	0
Over 3.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Ullern or draw	71%	71%	0
Ullern clean sheet	21%	–	–
Nordstrand clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.3 4.2 3.1 1 5.5 7.8 6.4 3.4 2 5.5 8.4 6.7 3.6 3 3.9 6.0 4.8 2.6 4 2.1 3.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ullern down, Nordstrand across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.5% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ullern at home: 1.83 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nordstrand away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Ullern, 1.60 for Nordstrand. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NOR 2–3 ULL · NOR 4–0 ULL · ULL 1–2 NOR · NOR 0–4 ULL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 12 Sept

ULLERN

LWLWLL3–4 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

NORDSTRAND

DWLLLL1–1 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	24	+49	64
2	Heming	24	+24	47
3	Gamle Oslo	24	+27	44
4	Vålerenga II	24	−9	40
5	IF Ready	24	+14	39
6	Bærum	24	+20	38
7	Union Carl Berner	24	+8	38
8	Frigg	24	−5	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	24	−22	29
10	KFUM II	24	−13	28
11	SF Grei	24	−29	25
12	Ullern	24	−19	23
13	Nordstrand	24	−18	20
14	Konnerud	24	−27	17