Nordstrand v Heming prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Nordstrand 0–2 Heming HEMING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Heming win~~51%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.363

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.374

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Heming win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Heming 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 29–20–51
1′KICK-OFF Nordstrand v Heming
45′HALF-TIME Nordstrand 0–0 Heming
46′SECOND HALF Nordstrand 0–0 Heming
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Heming win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
52′We said Heming at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 26–35–39
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–37–38
60′Heming find the net on 60′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–18–76
60′We said Heming at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 5–18–76
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Heming win 36%)
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Nordstrand 0–1 Heming
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Heming win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Heming win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 18%)
69′We said Heming at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Heming win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
71′PENALTY MISSED · 71' Nordstrand
77′We said Heming at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
83′We said Heming at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Heming win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
89′We said Heming at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
94′A goal for Heming on 90′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′We said Heming at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Nordstrand 0–2 Heming
FTFULL TIME Nordstrand 0–2 Heming
FTNordstrand 0–2 Heming · Heming win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Heming are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nordstrand 29%, draw 20%, Heming 51%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Nordstrand v HemingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nordstrand win29%

Draw20%

Heming win51%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nordstrand

Heming

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

Last match: 13 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Heming	23	+22	44
13	Nordstrand	23	−16	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · heming winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:46 · locked at kick-off

51% The market50%

Us51%

~~Market~~50%

We make Heming a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nordstrand v Heming~~1.58 – 2.15

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 44~~13 v 3

~~The market · Heming win~~50% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Heming win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nordstrand win	29%	29%	0
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Heming win	51%	50%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Both teams to score	69%	73%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	88%	89%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	51%	57%	−6
Nordstrand or draw	49%	50%	−1
Nordstrand clean sheet	12%	–	–
Heming clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.5%

0123450 2.4 5.6 5.6 4.0 2.2 1 4.2 7.8 8.5 6.1 3.3 2 3.1 6.3 6.6 4.7 2.6 3 3.4 3.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nordstrand down, Heming across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.4% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nordstrand at home: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Heming away: 2.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Nordstrand, 2.15 for Heming. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HEM 3–0 NOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 4 Sept

NORDSTRAND

LDWLLL0–1 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–1

HEMING

LWWWDD1–2 · 5–1 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 5–5 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	23	+48	61
2	Gamle Oslo	23	+28	44
3	Heming	23	+22	44
4	Vålerenga II	23	−5	40
5	IF Ready	23	+16	39
6	Bærum	23	+19	35
7	Union Carl Berner	23	+4	35
8	Frigg	23	+1	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	23	−24	26
10	KFUM II	23	−19	25
11	Ullern	23	−18	23
12	SF Grei	23	−30	22
13	Nordstrand	23	−16	20
14	Konnerud	23	−26	17