Konnerud v Asker prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Konnerud 2–3 Asker ASKER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Asker win~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.112

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Asker win at 73%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Asker 73% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 14–13–72
1′KICK-OFF Konnerud v Asker
14′A goal for Asker on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–9–85
14′We said Asker at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 6–9–85
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Konnerud 0–1 Asker
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Asker win: 73% at kick-off, 85% now
40′Asker score on 40′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
40′We said Asker at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Konnerud 0–2 Asker
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Asker win: 73% at kick-off, 95% now
41′The goal count is tracking the 4.8 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
44′Asker find the net on 43′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Konnerud 0–3 Asker
45′HALF-TIME Konnerud 0–3 Asker
46′Asker ahead on 44′ through K. Syvertsen. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
46′SECOND HALF Konnerud 0–3 Asker
48′A goal for Konnerud on 48′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Konnerud 1–3 Asker
68′Konnerud score on 67′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 3–13–85
68′5 goals already, more than the 4.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 3–13–85
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Konnerud 2–3 Asker
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Asker win: 73% at kick-off, 85% now
70′68′: E. Haldorsen on the scoresheet for Konnerud, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 2–13–85
81′We said Asker at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–3 · 1–9–90
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Asker win: 73% at kick-off, 93% now
FTFULL TIME Konnerud 2–3 Asker
FTKonnerud 2–3 Asker · Asker win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Asker are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Konnerud 14%, draw 13%, Asker 73%. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Konnerud v AskerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Konnerud win14%

Draw13%

Asker win73%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Konnerud

Asker

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

Last match: 14 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asker winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make Asker a 73% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–3.4, and 1–3 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Konnerud v Asker~~1.48 – 3.35

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 61~~14 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Konnerud win	14%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Asker win	73%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	85%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	70%	–	–
Konnerud or draw	27%	–	–
Konnerud clean sheet	4%	–	–
Asker clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–3 at 7.1%

0123450 3.0 4.6 5.0 4.2 2.81 4.0 6.6 7.1 5.9 4.02 3.0 4.8 5.2 4.3 2.93 2.4 2.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Konnerud down, Asker across0–5 goals a side shown (86.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.4% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Konnerud at home: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Asker away: 3.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Konnerud, 3.35 for Asker. Most likely score 1–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ASK 3–0 KON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 5 Sept

KONNERUD

LWLLDL1–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 5–5 · 2–3

ASKER

WWWLWW7–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 4–2 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	23	+48	61
2	Gamle Oslo	23	+28	44
3	Heming	23	+22	44
4	Vålerenga II	23	−5	40
5	IF Ready	23	+16	39
6	Bærum	23	+19	35
7	Union Carl Berner	23	+4	35
8	Frigg	23	+1	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	23	−24	26
10	KFUM II	23	−19	25
11	Ullern	23	−18	23
12	SF Grei	23	−30	22
13	Nordstrand	23	−16	20
14	Konnerud	23	−26	17