KFUM II v Frigg prediction · 3. Division - Girone 1

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30

KFUM II 6–0 Frigg FRIGG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Frigg win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.799

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Frigg win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Frigg was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 30–18–52
1′KICK-OFF KFUM II v Frigg
24′KFUM II find the net on 24′. 1–0. 1–0 · 51–21–28
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' KFUM II 1–0 Frigg
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Frigg win: 53% at kick-off, 28% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' KFUM II win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Frigg win 49%)
25′We said Frigg at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–0 · 51–21–28
36′We said Frigg at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 53–22–24
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Frigg win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
45′HALF-TIME KFUM II 1–0 Frigg
46′SECOND HALF KFUM II 1–0 Frigg
49′We said Frigg at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 57–24–19
59′We said Frigg at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Frigg win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
62′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Frigg
63′A red card for Frigg on 62′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 63–25–12
64′A goal for KFUM II on 64′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 88–9–3
64′We said Frigg at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 2–0 · 88–9–3
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' KFUM II 2–0 Frigg
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Frigg win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
66′KFUM II score on 66′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' KFUM II 3–0 Frigg
78′KFUM II find the net on 77′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' KFUM II 4–0 Frigg
79′Goals are coming at about the 4.7 we expected. 4–0 · 100–0–0
79′KFUM II ahead on 78′ through R. E. Vinge. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
80′A goal for KFUM II on 80′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' KFUM II 5–0 Frigg
81′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.7 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
87′KFUM II score on 87′ to make it 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' KFUM II 6–0 Frigg
88′6 goals already, more than the 4.7 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME KFUM II 6–0 Frigg
FTKFUM II 6–0 Frigg · Frigg win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Frigg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KFUM II 30%, draw 18%, Frigg 53%. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 80%.

The AI’s read on KFUM II v FriggBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

KFUM II win30%

Draw18%

Frigg win53%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KFUM II

Frigg

6Days since last match5

Last match: 13 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

Last match: 14 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Frigg	23	+1	33
10	KFUM II	23	−19	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · frigg winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 14 Oct 04:46 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Frigg a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–2.7, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KFUM II v Frigg~~2.03 – 2.68

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 25 v 33~~10 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Frigg win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KFUM II win	30%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Frigg win	53%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	84%	–	–
Both teams to score	80%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	69%	–	–
KFUM II or draw	47%	–	–
KFUM II clean sheet	7%	–	–
Frigg clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 6.5%

0123450 2.7 3.3 2.9 1 2.1 4.8 6.5 5.7 3.9 2.12 5.0 6.5 5.7 3.8 2.13 3.3 4.4 3.8 2.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KFUM II down, Frigg across0–5 goals a side shown (92.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 986 3. Division - Girone 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.4% of games this season, across 167 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 4.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KFUM II at home: 2.83 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Frigg away: 2.00 scored, 3.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for KFUM II, 2.68 for Frigg. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~FRI 4–3 KFU · KFU 0–0 FRI · FRI 2–1 KFU · KFU 3–3 FRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 1 this season · since 12 Sept

KFUM II

LLWDLD2–7 · 2–5 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–2

FRIGG

LWLDLL1–5 · 2–0 · 2–6 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Asker	24	+49	64
2	Heming	24	+24	47
3	Gamle Oslo	24	+27	44
4	Vålerenga II	24	−9	40
5	IF Ready	24	+14	39
6	Bærum	24	+20	38
7	Union Carl Berner	24	+8	38
8	Frigg	23	+1	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	24	−22	29
10	KFUM II	23	−19	25
11	SF Grei	24	−29	25
12	Ullern	24	−19	23
13	Nordstrand	24	−18	20
14	Konnerud	24	−27	17